Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Ascot r2 Feels Playful ; Form says Saloon Bar rounds these up with form around quality 3yo’s in much stronger races. However my map says Feels Playful leads without pressure and pinches a break while the fav will have to swing wide from last. Think we can run home fast enough to make it very tough for something to make up that much ground .

Ascot r4 Prize Pursuit (Place) ; Senior rider goes on and providing he jumps he should get a great run maybe 3 back the fence. When he gets a run like that and a run appears then he can really attack the line. It’s $5 the field and while he can definitely win I suggest 10/90 % to make a decent profit out of the place.

Ascot r8 Buster Bash ; Was never going to lose the ATA Stakes and although he got the world perfect run , my map has him getting it near identical this time. Again does no work and it’s hard to see him not getting an extra 200m on that basis. Before the ATA Stakes I thought Alaskan God was almost past the post in the Perth Cup. Nothing wrong with his run , got way too far back but again he draws wide and is forced to go right back with a young Victorian jockey booked. Can’t take $3.80 vs $7 each way.

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 3.​7/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8.​9/2.​3.​15/4.​5.​15 $144 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 West Coast Warrior ; Both runs this time in were eye catching. Ran on from well back both times , the second time he was held up and should of finished closer. Up 200m to 1500m should suit , where he gets too from barrier 1 a slight concern but if he see’s daylight early enough he should be right in the finish.

Best Value Pinjarra r6 Chad’s Me Dad ; Had a terrible prep in Winter but her two runs this time in have been much better. Maps to get a gun run smothered up midfield for Chris Parnham and the 1400m 3rd up looks ideal. Each way in a wide open race.

Pinjarra r8 Sunny Honey ; Very enigmatic 3yo who has a motor but does too much wrong . Finally jumped ok (for him at least) last start and got the job done. Stays in the same grade and can easily go back to back. The question is price , $2.40 for a horse you almost expect to blow the start is questionable.

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​11/3.​4.​6.​7/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​11.​12/8 $88 for 20%

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Barker Best Bet

Mount Barker r4 Look Here Punk ; Great first up run for the new stable when running on into 2nd in a Albany maiden , beating home key rivals . Again the gate is sticky , especially for this track however the Faithful combo are pretty lethal down here and class can prevail.

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Belmont Bangers

Belmont r6 Paddy’s Flyin ; 1000m was too short on debut but he still made up solid ground with some quick sectionals. Made amends over 1200 2nd up despite racing greenly in the straight. Storm Lord is first up no trial , could be hard to catch if ready but it’s a long straight at Belmont which gives Paddy every opportunity.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Outspoken Lad ; Drifted alarmingly in the market first up but still chased hard , only failing to run 1 down. Suited by the rise in distance where he has won 1/2 which was also 2nd up. Elderado River is flying , not much form behind him in his latest wins but he is the main danger.

Quaddie ( r5-8 ) ; 1 2 3 5 6 , 4 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 , 1 (9) $40 for 100% ($20 for 50% back up)

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Boxing Day Bonanza

Best Bet Esperance r5 Blazing Passion ; Always showed good speed in the metro/provincial area but couldn’t quite get it done. Sea change worked wonders with a soft win up on speed first up for the new camp . Same track , distance and class should produce the same result.

Pinjarra r8 Secret Statue ; Run on sprinter who seems to be at the top of his game. Always needs luck with his racing pattern but if he gets it he will finish over the top .

Best Value Pinjarra r9 Mombassa ; First up run was an absolute cracker , a little flat 2nd up but run through the line ok. 1600m 3rd up should suit. The bird has flown price wise ($19 into $9.50 no deductions) however it still looks an each way play.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Big Bada Boom ; Maps to get a picnic in front with Pike in the saddle over a distance he has a solid record at. Alsephina form is the right form , 60kgs the steadier but it’s quite a compressed weight scale.

Best Value Ascot r8 Cockney Crew ; Another picnic in front map scenario . Looks like a near identical situation to last start and while he was no match for the winner he kicked strongly for 2nd. Neufbosc ran 3rd that day and will be hard to hold out but will he be out to bust a gut with the cup 7 days later? Considering Cockney is double figures with some operators I’m very happy to play on a 30/70 % basis.

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Belmont Bangers

Best Bet Belmont r3 Fries With That ; Assessed this race with The Big One coming out of the market as it raced yesterday. They have decided on the rare 24hr back up which has thrown a spanner in the works however we got it beat yesterday and I’m going to stick to the plan. This is very weak (hence why the big one trying to pinch it ) and Fries has been running on well behind horses such as Crystal’s Dream and Emerald Trader . That’s good enough form for this plus Pike is jumping on. The fav prob leads but can it kick strong enough for another 100m on a 24hr back up? $1.80 is awfully short to find out. Big Spider has shown ability at trials .

Belmont r5 Belle Journee ; Ran 2nd to Call Me Violet at just 2nd start , that filly went back to back yesterday. From a good family , blinkers on , $5 looks a decent play each way in a wide open race.

Belmont r 7 Galaxy Affair ; Very consistent horse who is always in the mix no matter what grade you place him in. 59.5Kgs is getting close to where it hurts but his true handicap of 61.5 indicates he is the clear class runner of this field.

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r3 Boots Like Bruce ; 5yo who has only had 1 public trial 9 days ago where he was ridden aggressively but responded to win impressively in quick time. Straight to the races is a sign he’s cherry ripe for a first up win. The Big One is knocking the door down but keeps finding one better. Was disappointed with his last 100m last start .

Best Bet Ascot r7 Rock My Way ; 3yo filly who is 2/2 with decent form lines behind both victories. Not much meat on the bone at $2.50 considering she is taking on the older horses , up 400m and 5kgs however the rest of the field have a combined 21 wins from 250 starts so the 2/2 appeals.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 7 , 5 6 7 , 1 2 3 4 7 8 10 11 , 1 2 3 6 . $84 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r6 Sun Power ; Dropping from a 70+ 1200m when 2nd to Corn Cob. Conditionss should suit on pace runners . If the apprentice can land there it should go close. 1400m no issue for mine , the slower tempo might even help. Designated Drinker the clear danger if it replicates it’s first up run. Yet to run a place 2nd up previously.

Quaddie (r4-7) ; 1.​2.​4.​5.​6/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10/1 (10)/1.​5 $100 for 100% ($25 for 25% Back up)

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r3 Vane Tempest ; Putting a lot of faith in flying Apprentice Luke Campbell on a very flighty mare from barrier 1 but any sort of luck and she is so much better than these it’s ridiculous. Genuine Saturday borderline Stakes grade mare vs a field of midweekers. Sockoff and Glasgow Girl will ensure a genuine tempo out front , if the run presents it should be over . Only bad luck will beat her , I’m All Miss and Vogue’s Choice map best to capitalize in that circumstance.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​9/1/1.​2.​4/1.​2.​3.​4.​11.​12.​13 $168 For 100%

Ascot r7 Queen Alina ; Lightly raced 4yo mare who looks a real staying prospect. Should of won last start in this grade , track & distance. With the draw and weight she should have too much upside to make amends here .

Best Roughie Ascot r9 Tin Snip ; This is an absolute raffle where the best ride / run in transit most likely provides the winner so going to throw a dart at a roughie. Won a 1500m Westpeed Platinum 2 starts ago then was trapped wide over an unsuitable 1200m. Get’s his preferred dry track , soft draw (3) and 2kg claim to run a cheeky race at $34 .

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.​6/7/3.​4.​7.​10/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​11.​12.​13.​15 $112 for 100%

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Pinny Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Dirty Chai ; Don’t usually label one on trials alone but she has looked super smart , with plenty in reserve. Gets Pike and it doesn’t look a very strong maiden. Expecting her to be heavily supported and am happy to take the $2.25 on offer this morning.

Pinjarra r7 Prize Pursuit faces the starter for the 10th time this preparation at Pinjarra on Thursday in a c5 1300m event. He continues to work the house down and we expect him to run another mighty race.

Race Analysis ; Expect Cross Statement will be keen to find the top with the blinkers going on and you would imagine Via Monte would be happy to take his back with 60.5kgs. Expecting improvement from Cross Statement with the red hot Luke Campbell taking off 2kgs an added bonus. Via Monte should get every chance and is coming back from a Saturday Graduation win , lumping over 60kgs is never easy in any company. Airlie Queen’s record suggests she’s clearly a fresh horse , gets in with 55kgs and Pike , very dangerous. 1300m from a good barrier (3) is the perfect scenario for Prize Pursuit. We have gone for the apprentice to get down to 56kgs to give us our best chance of beating the topweight. The plan will be for him to jump cleanly , find the two leaders backs and produce him 1/2 way up the straight , that’s when he does his best work and if he gets that opportunity he should be very competitive.

Betting Strategy ; 20 % win 80% place. Currently sits at $6 / $2 most operator’s . That’s close to where I have him but am happy to wait for better . All the early money is for Hint of Mint . ($3.90) I don’t rate her chances in front of the other 4 mentioned but early moves should always be respected. *SCRATCHED Also been a nibble for Airlie Queen ($6) and that one I totally understand at the value. As other;s are supported we should drift providing connections can show some restraint

• Scratching has ruined the price / staking plan. If the place creeps out to $1.80 I’m happy to proceed , otherwise it’s a small win only bet .

Novelties : 1.​3.​4.​8/1.​3.​4.​8/1.​3.​4.​8/1.​.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​10 $6 quinella $12 exacta $24 trifecta $120 first 4

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Sunny Honey ; Won at big odds on debut as an early 2yo then unplaced since in much harder races than he finds here. He is almost guaranteed to fluff the start and race erratically but from the wide barrier the start isn’t as vital and with Pike taking the reigns I’m hoping he can use the long Belmont straight to use his gears and get over the top.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r1 The Big One ; Has had 7 cracks at it , placing on 5 occasions. Some of those places including last start have been behind horses better than maiden grade. From the inside draw he should be breaking through.

Pinjarra r5 Cyrstal’s Dream ; Beaten by wide barriers more than anything at her two career starts . Both runs have been full of merit and draws much better this time. Only has to run out the 1400m to win here. Zooropa should be hitting the line but always tough to win from the carpark .

Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 1.​2.​3.​5.​6.​7.​8.​11/1.​2.​6.​7.​9/(3).​12/1.​3 $80 For 100% ( $20 for 25% back up )

Pinjarra r8 Big Swoop ; Last few runs since returning from the dirt season have been massive including last start when returning to the winners stall. Gets every opportunity to dictate the pace on speed and go back to back.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r7 Alsephina ; Horses with her record (8 starts 6 wins 2 places) don’t need much of a write up. 3/3 at Ascot including 1 at 1600m . Her first up win was arrogant and her past tells you she doesn’t run a flat one. Above the Peg , Megazone and Casino Seventeen can all give her a race but don’t have the same killer punch .

Ascot r8 Alaskan God ; Some have been disappointed with his last 2 starts. They were group 1’s and both the mile 2nd up and wfa 1800 3rd up are a totally different scenario to today. His last 100m last week was actually great. I have said all along wait til he gets out to a trip and here he is on 55kgs , 1 off the minimum . I would be chips in from a gate but drawn wide at Ascot at $2.15 is a risk. Some short priced backmarkers have come undone recently , watch the earlier races and proceed with caution .

Best Value Ascot r9 Resortman ; This race is run between Winterbottom horses stretching out 200m to 1400m and Railway horses coming back 200m. Resortman had a great run in the Railway and ran out of his skin to finish 4th with topweight . Comes back to his sweet spot distance wise and gets Oliver . He has ridden a couple of peaches over the carnival and I can see Resortman settling midfield with galloping room and being in the finish. Going heavy place each way (10/90%) at the juicy odds on offer. Kissonallforcheeks is actually rated on top , she ticks all the distance , weight and barrier boxes. Kementari won this race last year , has been set for it and has solid form behind the cream of the crop over East, massive chance. Vilana has the ability but can’t back a horse that’s had two setbacks on a firm Ascot in a race like this.

R9 Trifecta ; 1.​2.​9.​14/1.​2.​9.​14/1.​2.​5.​7.​8.​9.​14 $60 for 100%

Quaddie (r7-10) 3 , 5 , 1 2 9 14 , 4 11 13 14 . $16 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Ascot r6 Missalfie ; We have identified her as a York specialist and cashed in on her recently at each way prices where she has won 3 of her last 4 races. Granted her Ascot record leaves a lot to be desired however I highly doubt she has raced here when in this vein of form , 1800 is her ideal distance range and she maps to get a great run on the minimum weight. $13 is a tempting enough carrot for me to have a decent each way bet. We also found today’s fav Surveillance last start at a price based on his Northam track & distance record . $3.30 looks a little skinny compared to our selection , 1800 possibly on his limit . It was a great win though and goes in the Quaddie.

*EDIT she has firmed into $8 overnight with no deductions. Still worth a bet but not going as hard without the overs .

Best Bet Ascot r7 Cartanera ; Ran a cracker first up in the Westpeed Platinum series heat over 1400m , then finished off well again in the final also over 1400m. Goes up 4kgs but gets out to a more suitable 1800m down in grade.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 5 8 10 13 , 1 5 6 9 , 2 , field . $192 for 100%

Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Hear Me Sing ; Only brings a narrow Albany 58+ win to the table but has performed at a higher level in the past and maps to get the perfect run just behind the pacesetters.

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1.​3.​4.​5.​7.​8.​9.​10.​12/1.​2.​3/2.​3/1.​2.​3 $162 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r5 Karalee Rocks ; Lightly raced 4yo mare who has won 3/4. Out of a Dam named Wowee and that’s what punters are saying when she unleashes her sprint down the straight , gathering up her rivals with a very sharp turn of foot. Real Danger is exactly that with the map advantage. Opened $1.95 and would of let her go through to the keeper up in class but $2.60 is worth having a swing at and she might continue to get out . By race 5 any track bias should have presented itself , being able to make ground out wide imperative to her chances.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​7/5.​10/1.​3.​9/3.​4 $72 for 100%

Best Bet Ascot r6 Rejuva King ; Last start finished 4.5 off Amelia’s Jewell this track & distance in the Guineas . That filly is clear 2nd favourite in today’s Group 1 Northerly Stakes. Concede he prefers a wet track however the Guineas was run on good and this is considerably weaker. The fact you can get each way at moment makes him the bet of the day.

Ascot r8 Cascadian ; His Eastern States form is far superior to his local rivals. 2 x Group 1 winner , 4 x WFA winner , 2/2 at the distance , he ticks all the boxes. Amelia’s Jewel could be a superstar. She gets 9kgs off the fav under the conditions and barrier 1. Despite the weight , WFA are tough hard fought races so I’m sticking with the 8yo warhorse over the brilliant filly. She needs to go to another level but I’m aware she has been trained for this all along and she is a danger. From a punting perspective Treasured Star looks the value. Nothing wrong with her run in the Railway from the horror gate , gets a great run here. Alaskan God can improve out of sight as the distances increase , better suited to handicaps in this grade. WFA makes the task significantly tougher for Trix of the Trade from the horror gate. Bustler a query at 1800 but get’s 52kgs.

R8 Trifecta ; 1.​14/1.​11.​14.​15.​16/1.​2.​4.​7.​10.​11.​12.​14.​15.​16 $64 for 100%

Quaddie (r6-9) 8/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​9/1/2.​3.​4.​5.​8.​10.​11 $42 for 100% (skinny)

2.​4.​8.​9/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​9/1/2.​3.​4.​5.​8.​10.​11 $33.60 for 20% (wide)

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r4 Lucky Sue ; Her early 2yo form was quite strong and she ran 2nd to another handy 3yo filly this track and distance last start. Not much depth to this maiden and she gets her chance to win one.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) 1 , field , field , 5. $72 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r6 Sky Duke ; Has placed all 3 starts this prep and last two were behind much smarter opposition than it meets here. Maps to lead or box seat and win.

Belmont Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 , 3 , field , 4 (7) $96 for 100 % ($19.20 for 20% back up)

Dangerous Quaddie in that if Miss Drakova wins first leg like form suggests the dividend could be very skinny. Just think 3yo coming back from 1600m Champion Fillies , she might be vulnerable but no clear dangers so it’s take the field and hope.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Geraldton r6 Galaxy Affair ; It’s metro form just has to stack up here. Being a 3yo and using Taj Dyson’s claim see’s it very well weighted. Just has to handle the good 3 to beat these.

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 2 , 1 3 8 , 1 2 4 5 7 8 10 11 , 1 2 4 11 . $96 for 100%

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