Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Revitup ; There were big doubts on him running out a strong 1200m going into the Placid Ark . Despite being no match for the unbeaten My Bella Mae , he gave a good kick when challenged and beat the rest comfortably including some pretty handy 3yo’s. If Pike can slingshot to the front early without doing too much work then he should take some running down . Charge kicking up and making him work early is the map issue. That scenario brings Featherweight and River Rubicon right into calculations.

Best Bet Ascot r2 Bitofmerit ; Has won 3/4 , all first up over 1000m . Only defeat was only time he has raced twice in a prep and he was diagnosed with a virus post race. He ran down a race fit River Beau in his trial which is a fair indication he is feeling good. Has been slightly easy in pre post markets (2.25 - 2.60) and I get it. Run on sprinters over 1000m , Ascot first time , heart in mouth stuff. Still thinks if he gets his chance and performs at his best he rounds them up. If he’s not ready then Moi Choux was very impressive first run in WA and is good insurance at $10.

Ascot r5 Prize Pursuit ; See Main blog for write up

Betting Strategy : $10 / $3 is not enough for me to get involved. I’m going to play the novelties for a small percentage .

3.​10.​12/1.​3.​4.​5.​9.​10.​12/1.​3.​4.​5.​6.​9.​10.​11.​12/1.​3.​4.​5.​6.​9.​10.​11.​12.

$18 exacta , $42 33% trifecta or $38 5% first 4 .

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; (1.​) 2/2.​9.​11/1.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​11.​12/3.​10.​12 $99 FOR 100% ( $25 FOR 25% BACK UP)

Best Value Ascot r7 Lady Chant ; If you were on like me last time you would of been terribly disappointed with the result. The simple facts are once she settled practically last she had no hope . Not sure if she is just a horse that can’t hold a position early or they are simply going round with 1 race in mind being the Perth Cup . Hoping rather than expecting she settles closer from barrier 2 and we find out if she’s up to this level at big odds. Pure Devotion is the All In Perth Cup favourite and is clearly the one to beat in this.

Ascot r8 Boxed Trifecta 2 4 13 14 ; Last year I declared Elite Street and watched in horror as it suffered a bleeding attack. While I think it will run a mighty race again we only have the first up run to go off which while a little plain was first up no trial on a leaders bias day. Going to back him to bounce back with two of the other leading local hopes in Miss Conteki who only needs a tow into the race to be super dangerous and This’ll Testya who is airborne . Villana is the visitor I’m most wary of .

Quaddie (r6-9) 2 3 6 11 , 13 14 , 2 4 13 14 , 3 4 11 $96 for 100%

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Mt Barker Best Best

R4 Sun Chacen ; A repeat of first up run when finishing a 2 length 3rd to Keytrade & Fiorucci Mama despite being tardy away would go very close here. Didn’t trial leading in and has won 2nd up previously . $4.80 looks good value in a very even race , shame it’s no third div.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r2 Trionfante ; Smacked them on debut this track and distance in maiden grade then went to a 3yo Omwly and ran 2nd. Drops back to a c1 and even gets a kilo off for being a 3yo filly.

Best Value Northam r7 Surveillance ; Out of his 4 career wins , 3 have been at this track and distance. Gets a 3kg claim , well drawn and goes around at $9 each way. The concern is So Likeable drawn inside him. Both like to roll along in front , trusting the apprentice to not get into a war and save something for the straight.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r4 Samaria ; 3rd on debut over 1100m , won her maiden with authority and then ran a narrow 2nd in a c3 over 1200m. Drops back to a c1 and should bounce straight to the front and take serious catching.

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Sunday Prayers

Belmont r6 Fiorucci Mama ; Maps to control it out in front and from there should be hard to run down. 1200m as far as she wants to go , especially with topweight but coming back 100m and down in class should see her go close.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Hammarmil ; Up and coming mare who is yet to miss a place in 5 starts. This is her toughest test but she’s drawn to get the perfect run just off them with cover and finish over the top. Karalee Rocks profiles very similar and has a lethal turn of foot. Her barrier means she will have to give us a decent head start so at the price differential I’m happy to go that way.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 , 1 , 9 , 2 3 4 10 11 14. $48 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r4 Written Matter ; Has always shown above average ability and it looks like he has added consistency to his bow. Was never going to lose once he found the front last start. Finds the front again , good use of claim , just has to run out 1400m to win again.

Ascot r5 Sniparoochy ; Ultra fast winning machine drawn to get every chance. Scared stiff of Baby Paris but they both ran over 1000m on the same day last start and the favourite ran almost 1/2 a second quicker.

Ascot r8 Trix of the Trade ; Massive win first up with 61kgs , huge run for 3rd from well back 2nd up and now peaks from an ideal barrier over 1600m on the minimum weight . Alaskan God is a potential superstar , just cant have him giving Trix a start or harder run and beating him over 1600m . 1800m and above he can dominate WA racing no doubt and still hard to beat. Ironclad has decent eastern states form , big effort to back up 7 days with a flight included. Buster Bash and Marocchino are two tough free wheeling on pacers who wont give in without a fight at big odds.

R8 Novelties ; 16/5.​7.​8.​9.​13/1.​2.​5.​7.​8.​9.​10.​13.​14.​15/1.​2.​5.​7.​8.​9.​10.​13.​14.​15 $5 exacta $45 trifecta $360 first 4 .

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Thursday Tips

Best Bet York R3 Weapon Of Choice ; Last two starts at this track and distance have been a win and an extremely unlucky 3rd when only beaten a small margin and we know how important handling the circuit is here. Maps to get a better run than the favourite who is dropping back in distance.

Best Multi Leg York r6 Miette Star ; Really should be a rinse and repeat of last start when jumped to the front and spaced them same track , distance , class. $2.45 opening price was a steal , 1 scratching and heavy support into $1.90 means I’ll leave it for the thrill seekers but it should justify it despite this race being ever so slightly stronger than last time.

Best Value York r8 Miss Alfie ; Another track & distance specialist who we made our Best Bet cup day and she didn’t disappoint . Margin was narrow but she did a power of work and refused to let them past. Goes up 1.5kgs but there is more speed in this so can sit off them and get a kinder run. King Kashoo was favourite that day and I can’t fathom why he is $3.20 today and we are out to $7 but I’ll happily accept it on an each way basis.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; field , 7 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 9 10 11 , 5 8 9 . $189 for 100% .

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Northam r1 Deetea ; Have sided with the best race day form . Had no chance from the draw first up and should get a better run here. Equal fav Torpedo Man might find the top and there’s no better place to be for this track and distance. Being race 1 we will have to just roll the dice pattern wise and hope it’s not dynamite leaders.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Albany r3 Sneaky Fox ; Last start he got past a very fast inform mare . Think he leads today . You have to catch him on the right day , considering Rojers trains 3 of the 6 the market moves should be a valuable guide, he was well backed when winning last start. It’s a shame it’s only pay 1 & 2 , only a small investment for me.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r1 Keytrade ; Ran past Prize Pursuit into 4th over 1200m first up in heat 1 of this series in a race that was dominated from those close to the speed. Then went to a 1300m c3 and finished best to get the job done. Extra 100m suits and in a capacity field lottery he should be one of the best swoopers providing you can make ground early. Each way all day.

Best Roughie Ascot r3 French Martini ; Any winning 3yo out of this crop must have a level of ability so when he opened $101 I thought why not have a small spec bet. Unfortunately I was too slow but you can still get 50s . From an inside draw and Natasha Faithfull riding winners for fun it is worth a little throw at the stumps .

Best Value Ascot r5 Lady Chant ; Her only win to date was the WA Oaks , a form line that looks good on paper however often doesn’t amount to much. She backed it up however with a 2nd in the 2500m SA Classic. Furthermore she looked terrific in her recent trials. Forget her first up run , with 61kgs it was nothing more than a glorified barrier trial , held up on the rail and cruising to the line. While she will appreciate getting out even further , she is drawn to not have to settle too far back in a race with little tempo on paper and she drops a massive 7kgs down to the minimum 54kgs. $23 / $5.50 looks crazy value. There’s a pre noms Perth Cup market (Tabtouch). If the likes of Alaskan God don’t go there she would be a decent bet at 21’s .

Best Bet Ascot r9 Devoted ; Pike’s back in town and every tipster and there horse is tipping him to win the last and get the highly talented gelding into next weeks Railway Stakes. I concur with this opinion and rather than back him at the shorts here , I am going to back him in the all in Railway market as wearing these colours and having Pike on , I’m certain he will replace Alaskan God as favourite . Stand out in Quaddie and Novelties.

r9 Novelties ; 10/1.​5.​12/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​11.​12/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​8.​11.​12.​13 $3 exacta , $18 trifecta $126 first 4

Quaddie ; r6-9 ; 1.​3.​5/1.​10/4.​7.​10.​11/10 $24 for 100% (skinny version)

1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​9.​12/1.​10.​14/4.​7.​10.​11/10.​12 $42 for 25% (wide version)

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Belmont Bangers

Best Bet Belmont r7 Starry Heights ; Showed a sharp turn of foot to win his maiden at just start two. His racing pattern should offset the barrier providing you can make ground. We are paying Pike tax on the price , it’s worth it more often than not.

Belmont r8 Bernbrae ; Beat up on moderate maidens at just start 4 at $1.40 over 2100m. Overcome a mad leaders bias in the process. Granted it was as weak a race as you could find but it is more about the upside with young stayers as the others go around and around without much success. Durrant stayer’s tax this time , she is very short. Riding Hood Fame was 50’s last night. She is $26 now and is 1 win from 60 starts but she has run 2 2nds in this class recently and beat Crezee home who is $10 here.

R8 Novelties : 14/3.​4.​5.​16/2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​13.​16/2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​11.​12.​13.​16 $4 Exacta , $24 trifecta $216 first 4

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 8 9 / 3 4 5 10 / 11 / 14 $12 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Ascot r4 Missile Storm ; Dropping from a 3yo 0MWLY where he ran 2nd to an All aged maiden is right in my wheelhouse as a punter. The only thing holding it back from best bet status is the barrier.

Best Bet Ascot r5 Mojo’s Luck ; Was first up no trial when settling way back before running on late over 1400m. Stays in the same class , drawn better and fitter . 3yo against the older horses at each way odds , life is good!

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Sunday Prayers

Best Value York r8 Chokslam ; York is a horses for courses type track and Chokslam is 2/2 at the track and distance . While others such as Billy Ray , Native Chimes and Crescent City have stronger recent form lines , I’m willing to take the value on offer at juicy each way odds.

Best Bet York r9 Missalfie ; Copy n paste from above. Her two starts this track and distance have produced a 2nd to Chokslam and a win. While her other runs have been ok , over 2000m is a stretch . If Chokslam runs a race in the cup then I don’t expect the $6.50 each way to last.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r4 Kosta’s Crown ; Was widely crowned as WA’s best maiden with multiple top 4 finishes in our top 2yo races last season . Finally shook that tag last start when they took luck out of the occasion, straight to the front and winning effortlessly in a maiden. Not worried about the big jump in class , as I’ve mentioned on numerous occasions , this crop of 3yo’s are the strongest in my lifetime. If it handles the extra 200m then it is clearly the horse to beat. If it doesn’t then Trade War , Stella Vista and Penny’s Afield will all be charging home.

Best Bet Ascot r5 Bustler ; Placed to perfection to remain undefeated in 3 starts to date , he know steps up to 3yo listed level as a $2.25 favourite but in a tactical affair he has the best turn of foot and racing manners in the small field . If it’s not dynamite leaders then he will win in my humble opinion.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 2 5 6 7 , field , 8 ( 2 4 7 ) , 5. $45 for 100% ( $33.75 for 25% )

Ascot r8 Resortman ; What more can we say except copy and paste from his whole remarkable campaign that started in July. The WFA conditions means he meets most rivals on very favourable terms and he draws to sit midfield with cover which he prefers to the inside run he was forced to take last time. Massimo leading on his terms the main danger .

Ascot r9 Prize Pursuit ; While he goes up considerably in class , he does so in fantastic order and is drawn to get a lovely run just behind the speed from the perfect gate. Full field of 16 means whatever wins will need some luck so I’m happy to have a small nibble on a 10/90% basis at big odds. Couldn’t talk you out of many in this race so the novelties look impossible. 3 4 5 (10) 11 14 16 look the main chances outside of our own if you want to box them up for a small percentage ,

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 2 4 5 6 10 11 12 , 4 5 12 14 , 5 (2) , 3 4 5 10 11 14 16 $224 for 100% (44.80 for 20%)

WA REPRESENTS

Rosehill r7 Sheeza Belter ; She will relish getting back on good ground more than anything else in the race. Raced without luck first up on wet ground. Going back to the crop of WA 3yo’s , this one is the best performed of all of them so far . Her Qld winter carnival form (on good ground) will win this race providing it’s not a dynamite leaders / rail bias day . Pike on adds to the WA flavour.

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Oaks Day Tips

Oaks She’s Extreme ; Very hard to go past the favourite in the Oaks. Beaten 1/2 a length behind Sharp n Smart in the Spring Champion stakes when you could strongly argue she should have won. Track a soft 7 with showers forecast and she loves it wet. Already a group 1 winner she is rated miles above her opposition and meets them at level weights. Synthetic Hoof Filler is a red flag gear change but you couldn’t imagine they would risk such a valuable filly if she wasn’t right to go.

Best Bet Ascot r3 Admiration Express ; Both runs to date have been good with very strong form lines for a maiden. She looks like the step up to 1400 will be ideal. The market says it’s a 2 horse race and Fashion Stakes is the clear danger. I’m banking on the barrier advantage (1 vs 8 ) making it a 1 horse race! Lucky Sue was hindered by a hot on speed rail bias last start. She has something to offer.

R3 Novelties 12 , 10 11 , 10 11 , field $2 exacta / trifecta $22 first 4 .

Ascot r6 Demolish ; Sustained a long run at Northam to beat a decent 3yo maiden field. Started favourite in a 3yo 0mwly over 1600m and ran 3rd next start. Looks hard to beat back to a c1 1400m from a soft draw.

Ascot r7 Halatorion ; Concede it had every chance last start but it only just missed and it’s hard to see it not getting every chance again from barrier 1 with Chris Parnham on . Denim Pack is a massive class dropper and is the other one I’ll be putting in the quaddie.

Quaddie (r4-7) 6.​9.​11.​14/FD/4/1.​6 $72 for 100%

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Cup Day Tips

Melbourne Cup N4 Montefelia ; While some of her runs have looked disappointing on paper this prep, I’m convinced it’s all been about the two cups. She was the best closer in the Caulfield Cup , savaging the line off a slow tempo which indicates she’s ready to go.Last time she was 100% firing she beat Veery Ellegant on a wet track who was prohibitive odds so she adds some class to a pretty thin race for a Melbourne Cup. The Vet’s and wet weather have really made this edition even harder than usual to dissect and it’s only a tip for the sake of having some fun . As for the novelties , I suggest mystery bets!

Best Bet Ascot r4 Market Stryke ; Drawn to find the fence first and has won 2/3 this track and distance . Any 3yo with any sort of form has to be respected as it’s the strongest crop I’ve seen in my lifetime. Mojo’s Luck fits this category.

R4 Novelties ; 1.​6/1.​6/FD/FD $1 quinella $14 trifecta $112 first 4.

Quaddie (r6-9) ; 11/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​10.​11/1/FD $135 for 100% & 11/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​10.​11/2.​3.​4/FD $101.50 for 25%

Geraldton r6 Honoriffic ; Coming off an Ascot 1600m 60+ and looks the class runner here by some margin.

Best Bet Geraldton r7 Sans le sou ; Ready to peak 3rd up at a track and distance she has had success at previously. All in Red hasn’t fired a shot this prep but she began her career here and has a great track record.

Geraldton Quaddie (r4-7) FD/1.​2.​3/1/6.​8 $72 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Ascot r7 This’ll Testya ; Was touted as an Everest horse when she first started racing. Problem was she was a nutcase , it was a task just to get her on the float . Put it down to maturity , a change of environment or a mixture of both but since changing stables she has gradually improved and now at the ripe old age of seven she has never looked better. First up run was enormous. 3 deep no cover , she was only out bobbed by the favourite who got up along the rail. She clashes with Miss Conteki once again and the speed map is clearly in our favour. if Lucy Warwick can find some cover behind the speedsters. Wilchino is rumored to be coming out but still in the market which is frustrating. Not only will it effect the price it makes finding cover that more difficult as she would of come across to give us the 1 out 1 back prime position . The fav will have to come from last regardless and this time out wide. That’s a big ask over the 1000m at Ascot but her brilliant track and distance record tells her it’s not beyond her. Express Time has a great track and distance record himself and should get a peach of a run. Trialing well and is the value at $26.

R7 Novelties ; 12/4.​6.​11.​13/4.​5.​6.​11.​13/1.​3.​4.​5.​7.​8.​9.​10.​11.​13 $4 exacta $16 trifecta $135 first 4

Ascot r8 Last of the Line ; Only beaten 1.5 lengths first up and looked like he would benefit from the run in the yard. He’s a beast of a horse. Unbeaten 2nd up (3/3) , 4/7 at the track and distance , he ticks a lot of boxes in a great betting race stacked full of chances either heading towards the Railway or trying to qualify. Each way all day.

Ascot r9 Brooklyn Pier ; Been a while between drinks for this horse but the Parnham’s are red hot , it’s recent form is stronger than the opposition by a margin and the race is named in honour of Nanna Parnham’s 90th Birthday!

Ascot Quaddie (r6-9) ; FD/12 ( 4 6 11 13 ) /2.​7.​15.​18/3 $40 if 18 gets a start r8 which looks unlikely $30 without. Same for 25% with insurance runners r7 .

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Northam Numbers

Track presented with a mad rail / on pace bias Sunday . Northam can throw that up but that was the first time this season it was that prevalent. Back on good ground today we will tip on a fair track basis and watch the first couple of races before investing.

Best Value Northam r5 Aramat ; Love following small stables when they are in form and this yard definitely fits the bill , especially at Northam. 25 start maiden with 10 placings but hasn’t finished further back than 4th this track last four starts. Not a lot of depth in the form here , if she can find a position from the tricky gate then she can run an honest race on a 20/80 % basis.

Best Bet Northam r7 Annihilator ; Another runner from the Jachmann yard that has raced exclusively in Northam c5’s for some time , earning a cheque in most. He’s no star but consistent as they come while some of the other fancied runners are the complete opposite. He maps a treat just behind the speed and you can get each way so looks a very safe bet.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r5 Cosmopolitan Girl ; Won 3 straight finding the front with her customary early pace and kicking away for comfortable victories . Last start she worked hard outside the leader in stakes grade and was still only beaten 5 lengths. If she finds the top she’s very hard to run down and overs at $4.40 . Always a concern when your relying on leading or bust , especially with an apprentice on but she’s quick and all 3 wins were with an apprentice aboard. Men’s Club looks the danger map wise .

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r5 Penny’s Afield ; Much better suited out to 1400m 2nd up and Chris Parnham is back in the saddle. Not that there was anything wrong with the first up run , was just too big a task from the wide gate . Likely settle’s midfield and comes down the outside for her run so as long as the pattern isn’t mad rail she looks hardest to beat.

Best Bet Ascot r7 Snowdome ; When I saw the nominations Tuesday arvo I was stoked to see the presence of boom horse Amelia’s Jewel , thinking we would get a price for Snowdome . Despite sitting deep no cover first up he powered past them late and was way too classy. While little separated them when markets opened and still doesn’t , they have flipped and Snowdome holds favouritism . Amelia trialed like a superstar before racing as a 2yo and was simply breathtaking in winning all 3 starts at listed / group level. The boom is warranted but I must say the trials this time in have been below what she produced last time. This could be for several reasons . She is being set for the Group 1 Northerly Stakes which is a WFA 1800m event run towards the end of November. If this is her grand final then she won’t be 100% wound up yet. She could be doing everything asked of her in the trial and be kidding punters . I’m sure If she sees daylight early enough in the straight she will be charging home but I think Snowdome will be traveling too strongly out in front to reel in , just a shame I’m not the only one thinking this and were not getting overs.

Best Value Ascot r9 Chili is Hot ; Type of horse that always gives 100% and when punting each way that’s a trait I love in horses. Should get every chance just behind them from the good gate and be fighting out the finish. $9.50 is great value each way.

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