Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Ascot r9 Classic Encounter ; Only brings Geraldton maiden form to the table but it went toe to toe with a cerise ‘n’ white buddy Central Force 2 back . He ran a credible 4th in a 3yo SWP Saturday . Last start sat in the breeze and was a class above. Agree with the market in that Vitalize will be the hardest to hold out.

Best Value Geelong r8 Luncies ; Needs to win to force his way into the Melbourne Cup , currently sitting in 39th position in order of entry. Has run two crackers this preparation including a close up 6th in the Turnball Stakes. WA superstar Damien Lane booked , $10 each way looks a good bet. Bet365’s Melbourne Cup Market includes money back if it doesn’t get a start. I have backed Luncies at $101 . If he wins today or Derby Day and makes the field he will be much shorter ( already $50 / $60 most other operators) and I can lay it off on betfair for guaranteed profit . If he doesn’t he most likely doesn’t start and I get my money back.

Geelong r9 Mac n Cheese ; Flies fresh and by all reports is ready to run from a perfect barrier at a great each way price.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Magical Reign ; This horse loves Kalgoorlie. Has had 2 runs for the new stable and both have been crackers. Won’t be a pretty watch , she will be out the back and trying to swoop them out wide but the apprentice won on her in that fashion 2 runs ago . Yet to win at this distance so while I’ll be going straight out , 30/70 % might be the safer option.

Kalgoorlie r6 No Whispering ; Think it finds the front and controls and from there it should take a stack of beating. Actually more confident of it winning then best bet above however it’s also less value at $2.25.

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r2 Prize Pursuit ; Ain’t No Other Man , Requisition and Sneaky Fox are the likely pace setters. The barrier draw wasn’t so kind this time and we jump from 10/12 with 60kgs. Hopefully the 3 mentioned above turn it on and either open up a gap for jockey Brad Rawiller to slot in or there is a 3 deep train to track into the race on the corner. Ain’t No Other Man is deserved favourite from the ideal draw and use of 3kg claim. His form behind Karli’s Karma and Let’s Galahvant is very strong for this grade. We have the rest covered on form and ability , just need to overcome the gate . Requisition struggles to see out 1200m but is going well , Dance Cockey had a big Broome season and has been competitve since returning to town.

Betting Strategy ; Not enough value in $4.40 for me to have a win bet , around $6 gets me interested. Think we can base the novelties and early quaddie around the two favourites.

Novelties ; 2.​3/1.​2.​3.​9/1.​2.​3.​4.​9/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​7.​8.​9.​11 $6 Exacta $18 trifecta $108 first 4

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2 3 , 4 , 1 2 5 6 8 9 10 , field $168 for 100%

Best Bet Ascot r3 Tri For Us ; Most are expecting a duel up front between free rolling types Buster Bash and Native Chimes. Tri for Us maps to get the sweetest of runs behind them and finish over the top. Has run on well both two runs this prep and now looks ready to peak over the suitable 1800m. Native Chimes was massive in the Kalgoorlie Cup and if she gets any sort of peace in front she will be extremely hard to beat.

Ascot r8 Resortman ; Was the star of the Belmont winter sprint features and now should have the residual fitness to test the other class runners in the group 3 1400m feature. Has had a trial in between runs and hasn’t looked to have lost any zip , cruising alongside Devoted over 950m who is hot favourite in the last and 2nd favourite for the Railway Stakes. Should get a gun run midfield and I’m tipping him to be too strong for rivals who are still building to targets further down the track.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r4 Demolish ; The 4 places to 2yo’s of the calibre of Top of the Pops reads well for a 3yo maiden. Obviously hasn’t taken any ill effect from his first up run when badly checked and dislodging the rider. The Parnham stable is on fire . The barrier looks the main obstacle however Northam has been playing quite even. The favourite Nyet was a sales topping $325k yearling. The fact he has been gelded already is a sign he has a bit of work to do to pay off the purchase price. He is also drifting which is not usual for this stable when they are fancied. Playhouse Patron was a flop at Kalgoorlie , he’s 2yo form was good enough. Filthy Habits was fancied in that same Kal race , did way too much wrong in running.

R4 Novelties 2/1.​3.​5.​6/1.​3.​5.​6/1.​3.​5.​6 $4 exacta , $12 trifecta $24 first 4.

Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 1 2 4 6 8 / 2 /1 5 7 10 / 5 6 10 $60 for 100% & 1 2 4 6 8 / 1 3 5 6 / 1 5 7 10 /10 $40 for 66%

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Weekend Winners

Ascot r3 Ginger Baker ; Usually against this horse , especially when favourite and last time I fell for him he again let supporters down. One of those horses that looms to win quite often but finds trouble , runs crooked or finds one better more often than not . His Ascot record is ordinary to boot. Why then your probably asking and it’s a very valid question! Process of elimination just leaves him clearly on top of the ratings. His recent defeaters in Western Knight , Advanced and Benji’s would start very short in this. Should sit midfield with cover and he simply won’t get a better opportunity to win one so one last chance …. again .

Best Bet Ascot r6 Vampi at Play ; Ran 3 2nds in her 2yo campaign including an unlucky 2nd behind a smart one on debut before going out a winner at start 4. Resumes on the minimum from a great stalking draw where she should settle just behind the leaders and she looked to be absolutely bolting in her trial where the jockey didn’t sneeze on her.

Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 2 ( 4 7 10 11 ) ; 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 , 1 6 9 , 13 $42 for 100% ( $105 to include first leg insurance)

R6 Novelties ; 13/3.​5.​6/3.​5.​6.​7.​8.​14/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​6.​7.​8.​9.​10.​12.​14 $3 exacta , $15 trifecta , $150 first 4

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Northam r3 All Man ; This is considerably easier than what he’s been contesting lately. The last time he was in this grade he won with 59kgs. Would change my tip to Special Picture on a soft 6/7 , that’s about the only concern using form. A bigger concern is backing anything in a weak staying race where they can take turns. Looks the one though on a pretty ordinary meeting.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 , field , 1 , 3 (2) $12 for 100% ($24 to include n2) .

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r1 Speckles ; She has more ability than her record suggests , particularly in this distance range. Should of just about won last start but was slow away and held up several times in the straight. Leaving the barriers is a worry as she’s done it before but if she can hold a spot from the barrier she is the one to beat in a weak maiden.

Best Value Northam r2 Admiration Express ; This is a cracker of a 3yo maiden and clearly the race of the day. My selection is a nice horse ready to run a race on debut to keep the party going from yesterday for Jason Miller Racing. There are a stack of exciting prospects headed by the fav Sentimental Belle but from barrier 2 she should get the right run to be competitive at $12 each way.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 Prize Pursuit ; He was never going to lose last start and with the same weight , perfect barrier and almost identical strength of opposition ( you could argue it’s weaker) , it’s not hard to see why punters have zeroed in . Love Drunk Baby looks the only possible threat . Perhaps he can lead from the inside depending on what the enigmatic Sneaky Fox does . With normal racing luck Prize should be gunning him down regardless.

Betting Strategy ; 100% wins Actually hoping money comes for Love Drunk Baby to make it worth our while. At around $2.20 - $2.40 I’m willing to have a bet , Odds on is no longer my cup of tea no matter how confident.

Novelties ; 1 (5) , (1) 5 , field , field $1 quinella/exacta , $8 trifecta , $56 first 4 . (costs dbl if you have both numbers 1st and 2nd. )

Early Quaddie (r2-5) 1 3 (4) , 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 3 (4) , 1 (5) . $20 for 100% ( $90 to include bracketed numbers)

Best Value Kalgoorlie r6 STARTTHEFRIAR ; If he runs up to his best at his favourite track and distance he runs an almighty race at odds here. He’s runs since winning last years Hannans 12 months ago have been average however he is a quirky horses for courses animal that either runs a cracker or flops badly. I’m generally concerned about his 2nd up record and his attitude , he could be looking for the retirement paddock but this is the race to find out if he’s got anything left to offer. Small each way play. If Excellent Dream backs up from Thursday then he and Yeah Dardy have the obvious form lines for novelty players.

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Kalgoorlie Gold

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r6 Dawn Amnesty ; Has been hitting the line hard this track when allowed to drop out early. Usual racing pattern offsets wide barrier. It thrashed current favourite No Whispering only a month ago so I don’t understand the price differential ($2.75 vs $10) . Great each way price .

Best Value Kalgoorlie r7 Creator ; This horse doesn’t go a yard in the wet so the stable brought him to kal and were instantly rewarded. Yes a Hannan’s Handicap is a much tougher assignment but he also goes from 62kgs / 59.5kgs down to the minimum of 54kgs and gets a good run on top of the speed. At $18 I suggest it will give them something to catch .

Quaddie (r5-8) ; 2 3 4 5 9 , 5 11 , 2 3 5 6 7 9 12 13 , 2 (5 11) $80 for 100% ( $40 for 25%)

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Geraldton r1 Central Force ; The two cerise n white 3yo’s (different trainers) dominate the market and they are coming out of the same race where both were on debut. Central Force beat Classic Encounter home and while he had the better run in transit , to my eye looked a lot more ready to go whereas the filly was very green. The money has already seen a positive push towards the gelding and I’m happy to go that way. Dented Romance and Vital Times just as dangerous if they run up to their best first up.

Novelties ; 6/1.​3.​8/1.​3.​7.​8/1.​3.​7.​8 $3 exacta , $9 trifecta , $18 first 4 .

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Long Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r7 Cosmopolitan Girl ; Looking for a repeat of last two starts where she has been ridden positively early to find the front and never looked liked losing. Rathmine Lady has the best form to challenge , tricky draw though.

Best Value Belmont r9 Miss Alfie ; She was only 2nd up when she ran a promising 2nd to Chokslam over 1900 at York. Not sure about the last 100m for both of them but at $15 each way I’m prepared to have a bet .

R9 Boxed trifecta 2 5 6 10 .

Quaddie (r7-10) 4 , 2 , 2 5 6 10 , 1 2 4 6 7 10 11 $28 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Northam r6 Boy Blue ; Worked hard on debut over 1400m when running a top 3rd to Fly Away Home who won a Saturday race yesterday. Straight out to 1600m and tried to lead all the way , fighting them all off besides one who is favourite in the next race. Manhattan Rain is dropping in class and from a red hot stable but I’m not convinced it’s going that well. I am convinced the market is the wrong way round and I’m going to have a decent bet here.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; field , 3 , 1 4 ( 3 5 ) , field $162 for 100% ($40.50 for 25% as back up)

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Weekend Winners (Scratchings Update)

Belmont r5 He’s A Lucky Lad ; Have had this horse in the black book as a progressive Saturday stayer since his early 3yo days. 4/5 at Belmont and prefers dry ground which he gets tomorrow. The knock is the price. He likely gets back to last and making ground at Belmont has been next to impossible. Plenty of pace engaged for a staying race so I will leave it with trainer & jockey to hatch a plan to overcome the gate. Surely we get better than $3.20 .

Early Quaddie (r2-5) , 1 3 4 9 , 1 2 5 7 , field , 3 $144 for 100% (very risky standing out last leg tip , hopefully where playing for a decent dividend to warrant the risk

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r5 He’s A Lucky Lad ; Have had this horse in the black book as a progressive Saturday stayer since his early 3yo days. 4/5 at Belmont and prefers dry ground which he gets tomorrow. The knock is the price. He likely gets back to last and making ground at Belmont has been next to impossible. Plenty of pace engaged for a staying race so I will leave it with trainer & jockey to hatch a plan to overcome the gate. Surely we get better than $3.20 .

Early Quaddie (r2-5) , 1 3 4 9 , 1 2 5 7 , field , 3 $144 for 100% (very risky standing out last leg tip , hopefully where playing for a decent dividend to warrant the risk

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Wednesday Winners

Important Track Update ; We have woke up to a drying soft 5 . Seeing as I’ve tipped a rough as guts wet tracker that’s not ideal. I will leave the tip there with novelties but I don’t suggest spending much on them.

Best Roughie Belmont r8 I’m Eugene ; Record suggests it is far more effective on soft tracks. Hopefully by the last it hasn’t dried out too much. Last start before a quick freshen up spell he ran 3rd to Let’s Galahvant this track and distance. That horse has won Saturday races since so @ $30 I will have a little spec each way . The favourite Tiffany Street is quite small so 57kgs against the older horses at odds on is not my cup of tea . If I was asked the most likely winner she would still go on top , just not a betting proposition at the price.

R8 Novelties ; 6.​8/​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8/​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8/.​2.​3.​4.​6.​7.​8 $10 exacta , $40 Trifecta $120 first 4.

Quaddie (R5-8) ; 1 2 , 4 7 , 2 3 4 , 6 8 $24 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers (Scratchings Update)

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Sluice Box ; Trainer openly told punters Sluice Box was not ready last start. with today and the Kalgoorlie Cup in mind. Thought he was the only danger to the now scratched General Grant so naturally goes on top. The new fav No Apology has changed ownership but remained in the same stable as the scratched fav. It was heavily backed in the Coolgardie Cup and won softly. I have doubts at the longer trip but am very wary of the market moves , especially with the Kalgoorlie Cup being Sluice Box’s main aim.

Novelties : 6/1.​3.​4.​5.​10/1.​3.​4.​5.​10/1.​3.​4.​5.​7.​9.​10 $5 exacta , $20 trifecta $100 first 4

Best Value Kalgoorlie r8 Blue Turns to Grey ; In career best form and coming off a soft win this track and distance. Again up in class but drawn to get a great run with a very light weight and is each way odds. The form around Lincoln’s Law reads very well for this and I will be backing both.

Novelties ; 6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​10.​11.​12.​16 $10 exacta $40 trifecta $256 first 4

Quaddie (r5-8) 2.​3.​8.​9.​11.​12/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​7.​9.​10.​12.​14.​/ 6 / 6.​15 $120 for 100%

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 General Grant ; Tough win last start with 59kgs. The big step up in class is offset by the drop to the minimum of 54kgs. Trainer openly told punters Sluice Box was not ready last start. Did beat the fav home in May by 5 lengths however a 5kg swing in the weights has me firmly in Grant’s corner.

Novelties : 6.​8/6.​8/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​7.​9.​10/1.​2.​3.​4.​5.​7.​9.​10 $1 quinella $16 Trifecta $112 first 4.

Best Value Kalgoorlie r8 Blue Turns to Grey ; In career best form and coming off a soft win this track and distance. Again up in class but drawn to get a great run with a very light weight and is each way odds. The form around Lincoln’s Law reads very well for this and I will be backing both.

Novelties ; 6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​6.​15/1.​2.​3.​4.​10.​11.​12.​16 $10 exacta $40 trifecta $256 first 4

Quaddie (r5-8) 2.​3.​8.​9.​11.​12/1.​2.​4.​5.​6.​7.​9.​10.​12.​14.​15/8 (6) /6.​15 $132 for 100% ($33 for 25%)

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Cywer ; Yet to finish worse than 2nd in her 5 start career and you could argue she should be unbeaten this preparation. Wide draws on bias tracks have proven a hindrance , last time they bucked the odds and went forward . While she only fell in in a Northam c1 she was coming off a gap between runs and showed great heart to fight a talented rival off who had every chance. Drawn wide again I think Harvey will go forward and sit outside equal favourite Vogue’s Choice. Should be a dogfight down the straight and hoping the Pontiff can lift her home.

WA REPRESENTS

Best Bet Caulfield r7 Showmanship ; Use this horse as my punting ATM and I’m very bullish I’ll be withdrawing again tomorrow . Hard to bet early when the pre post favourite is 2nd emergency in I Wish I Win. He was awesome first run in Australia but had the race run to suit . Showmanship is 8/10 , 4/4 1400m and handles all conditions. Will sit midfield and explode . Can get $7.50 / $2.60 if you shop around which is awesome each way value.

Best Value Graceful Girl ; Winterbottom winner and stablemate to Showmanship , she looks ready to show her best 3rd up. Wouldn’t want it too wet (soft 6 max) but she has the ratings to provide great back up to the main bet on a small stake at 10 / 90 % basis.

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Northam Numbers

Northam , favourites and my Tips rarely combine for a fill up however the latter half of the program really does look like a favourite lovers paradise. For this reason I am suggesting a system 2 / 3 win bet ( min 2 out of 3 have to win to collect ) and a decent go at the quaddie for units.

Northam r6 Strike Now ; Looked slightly disappointing last run . Maybe the wheels were spinning in the soft conditions or he was looking for further and today he gets a firmer surface , 1600m and easier opposition.

Best Bet Northam r7 George Gently ; Greenness may be the only reason he hasn’t won his maiden yet. He can take some balancing but once he does he can really attack the line. Gets a wonderful opportunity to park in behind them and pounce down the straight. Starchienne was a decent debut and looks the clear danger.

R7 Novelties ; 2 8 , 2 8 , 7 9 10 , field . $1 quinella , $6 trifecta $54 first 4 .

Northam r8 Defending ; Won a c3 1300m then went to the same race as Strike Now and finished off okay not far behind him. This is much easier , the 60kgs from the wide gate is more of a concern than the opposition. Pepper Assault is 0/5 at 1300m , last 100m sees her out but if she can get a cushy run she might be the danger.

Quaddie (skinny) ; 1 4 7 12 , 1 , 2 (8) , 1. $4 ($8 ) per 100%

(wide) ; 1 4 7 12 , field , 2 , 1 . $64 per 100%

my staking plan ; 7 * $4 skinny ($28) 2 * $8 skinny ($16) 1 * wide $64 Total Spend $108

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Mega Reward ; Has to carry 60.5kgs but he has a very much in form Paul Harvey, who is the king of lifting them over the line. Wet ground no problem , just has to get across outside the leader without burning too much petrol early. 40/60 % each way. Stars Aplenty gets a softer run and is a big danger. Romero finished right behind Mega Reward recently and gets 2kg swing . Keen to take on the favourite Costume Party today. Her best form wins this but it’s 2yo form which can be misleading . First up no trial on a soft 7 with no wet track data to go off . Too many ifs to back her as favourite.

Novelties ; 1 2 8 , 1 2 3 8 , 1 2 3 6 8 , field $27 trifecta $135 first 4 .

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 2 , field , 1 2 8 , 2 4 5 . $99 for 100%

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