Sunday Prayers

Best Bet York r1 Chokslam ; York is a quirky track with a downhill run down the back straight before the home corner. Horses with previous success are a good place to start. He is one from one this track and distance and coming off a last start 2nd in good time. Very hard to beat.

York r4 Rare Case ; On speed is generally advantageous at York and her last start 4th when leading was in a much better form race than she meets here. Was super keen at $2.35 , has just shortened into $2 before my eyes which is rock bottom.

Due to the odds I will concentrate on the early quaddie .

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , field , 2 3 4 5 6 8 , 10 . $60 for 100%

Please Gamble Responsibly

Weekend Winners

Belmont r6 Buster Bash ; There wasn’t much separating Buster Bash , Westriver Miracle and Blinder last time. The weight swing and drier track can help the latter two turn the tables. I still think Buster can find enough under the vigor of the Pontiff to hold them off.

Exacta ; 3 , 5 & 6 $2 / unit

Best Bet Belmont r8 Resortman ; Has come back off injury in beast mode . Only failure was a complete forgive on a bottomless heavy 10. He has overcome severe on pace bias in both his wins in harder races which is quite remarkable. If that bias was to present again then Phanta back in distance and dropping significantly in weight could take some catching.

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 3 ( 5 6 ) , 5 7 , 2 ( 7 ) ; 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 . $14 ( $84) for 100%

Back Up Version ; 3 ( 5 6 ) , 1 2 3 4 6 8 , 2 (7) , 2 3 4 6 7 8 10 . $21 ( $126 ) 50 %

How I am playing it ; 9 x $14 , 1 x $84 , 2 x $21 , 0.5 x $126 Total Spend $315 .

WA Runners Representing ;

Flemington r5 Regal Power; Very classy customer who is unbeaten at 1600m. On a firmer surface I would definitely be having a nibble at the $16s with Ollie on board. Will be following deeper into prep and can place today . Western Empire might also be looking for a firmer surface. Needs to improve on his first up run at WFA .

Best Bet Flemington r7 Kissonallfourcheeks; 2nd up 1400m is her ideal scenario and she is proven here at headquarters in this company. Track presents wetter than a 6 and I’m putting the cue back in the rack.

Please Gamble Responsibly

Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r6 Legacy of Tara ; Caught deep without cover on debut but still proved too strong over 1300m. The jump from maiden to c1 class catches a lot out but being a 3yo filly she still gets in reasonably light. I like following small stables when they are in form and they got a winner yesterday.

Quaddie (r4-7) ; 3 10 , 1 5 6 7 8 , 8 , 2 4 8 .

Please Gamble Responsibly.

Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r1 Universal Flair ; Going off the 7 length heavy 10 win two back she should be very hard to beat. Leads on her ear for an apprentice who is good out in front. Obviously Azena will be the one mowing her down late . Sticking with the proven swimmer who also gets a 1.5kg weight swing to reverse finishing positions from last start on a soft 5.

Belmont r4 Cheerful Moment ; Yet to win over 1400m or 2nd up but has a Flemington 2nd and loves it wet. If he can come a narrow 2nd over 1200m first up with a big gap to 3rd then he can beat this lot.

Belmont Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 , field , field , 1. $90 For 100%

Please Gamble Responsibly

Sunday Prayers

Runner Alert Kalgoorlie r3 Prize Pursuit ; We have gone to Kal to chase a firmer surface and a drying soft 5 is perfect. Norton bit on to try and get him to settle and back to 1200m on the advice of jockey Paul Harvey who rode him last time. His work leading in has been sharp. $3.50 fav for a 1200m experiment is not appealing personally , happy to watch , learn and hopefully add another photo to the pool room.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 Dalhousie ; Has a turn of foot to be very dangerous in this company . First run at Kal was massive , storming home from last. This is a tougher field but Chris Parnham going on is a massive tick. Hoping he can settle her a touch closer .

Kalgoorlie r8 Sluice Box ; While I’m sure this is a campaign aimed at the Kalgoorlie Cup , the scratching of Savage One presents a wonderful opportunity to win today’s feature on the way. Gets the perfect trail into it and as long as he’s wound up enough he will finish over the top.

Please Gamble Responsibly.

Weekend Winners

The theme of today is the state of the track compared to what most of the current form has been run on. A soft 5 currently and that’s due to 10mls of irrigation can you believe! Saturday has gone from Noah’s Ark on standby to a shower or two in the morning. I’m expecting a soft 5 which means all except the should handle it . Another concern is the recent pattern of on pace / rail dominance. No matter the rating the track looks tired. Making ground has been next to impossible out wide. Wednesday played a lot fairer so it really is a wait and see approach.

Best Bet Belmont r2 Strike Now ; Did enough first up on a wet track to indicate he will continue to rise through the grades this prep. Stalks them from barrier two and providing the gap comes , think his finishing burst will be too strong. The thing that strikes me the most is his strike rate of 3 wins 3 2nds in 6 starts. You know you will get a run for your money.

Belmont r3 Alesphina ; The only thing that can beat her today is the track pattern. The dangers on paper in Enticing and No Change have appreciated the recent heavy tracks . The Great Hoya can settle handy with the big drop in weight and back out to 1200m benefiting his chances. She will be back and wide though so unless there is clear evidence that’s ok today then $2.10 is not worth the risk. Even the Novelties change if a rail bias presents.

Novelties

Box 1 5 6 9 $24 trifecta

5 , 1 6 9 , 1 6 7 9 , 1 2 3 4 6 7 9 . $45 first 4

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 3 , 3 , 5 ( 1 6 9 ) , 3 4 5 7 8 9 . $18 ($72) for 100%

Please Gamble Responsibly

Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r2 Special Sort ; Looked very raw on debut but once he balanced up he really hit the line nicely. The two leaders in the small field controlled the race as expected. We tipped the winner Sunplay as our best bet that day , tipped 2nd Fly Away Home as our best bet Wednesday ( won) , so we are happy to use the form again. For omen punters it was also r2 no 13 !

Please Gamble Responsibly

Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Fly Away Home ; Barrier 2 and the light weight due to the 3yo allowance looks a good set up. If it doesn’t lead it gets the cutaway and a decent head start over key rivals Mr Megsey and George Gentley . Recent form strong enough for this.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 1 2 3 5 6 , 13 , 1 3 6 , field $120 for 100%

Please Gamble Responsibly

Weekend Winners

Not a meeting I’m enthused about to be honest. The switch from very wet to good will play havoc with the form lines . Some horses that have been racing in the slop will bounce and be extra fit , others will be flat and tired . Only the trainer’s will have some idea hence market moves will be vital. We found Showmanship last week and can’t wait to keep making withdrawals out of the horse ATM . Peter’s Investments has another strong team in over east , headlined by Western Empire and Graceful Girl . Both great horses , Caulfield a heavy 8 at the moment and happy to watch for a future’s perspective rather than backing them in today.

Best Multi / Novelty Banker ; Belmont r2 Baby Paris ; Returned with an arrogant win on a soft track that was very quickly downgraded to a heavy 10 not long after. Her only defeat in 3 starts was a 2nd to the most exciting 2yo to come out of WA in decades in the Karrakatta Plate . Trial enthusiasts are salivating over Saloon Bar , she is yet to win one but hit the line hard under a hold . Runs into a pretty smart one here. Universal Flair beat up moderate opposition on a bottomless heavy track , complete different set up here. I can see why she is $1.80 but I’m not prepared to have a “crack” due to being 2nd up off a wet track run , just in case she’s left a little flat. Going to attack the novelties instead.

r2 Novelties : 4 , 1 9 , field , field . $2 Exacta , $18 trifecta $144 first 4 .

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 4 , 1 3 4 5 8 9 11 , 4 6 8 , 2 5 6 7 8 . $105 for 100%

Best Bet Belmont r6 Ginger Baker ; Worried he has turned into a be on me next time type horse but 2nd up , 1400m and a soft draw have suckered me in. Proven weight carrier , up to Brad Parnham to navigate a passage from barrier 1 , hopefully no further than 3 back the fence as this horse can find trouble.

Quaddie( r6 -9) ; 1 , field , 5 9 , 2 3 5 6 8 9 11 . $154 for 100%

Please Gamble Responsibly

Northam Numbers

Today’s meeting is littered with short priced favourites that should win however there are enough negatives to not take the odds on offer. Instead I will be playing the quaddies . I have included some notes on the individual legs and you can decide multi’s , novelties for yourself.

Early Quaddie (r1-4); 1 , field , 10 , 2 3 . $18 for 100%

R1 Tiger Move; $1.75 for a maiden trying to break through at start 23 says a lot about the quality of the field. Someone’s got to win it and on current form he is most likely. Affluential ran last on debut , 9 lengths behind Tiger Move. That was on heavy , out to 2200m start 2 on a soft 5 could assist but it’s a stretch . Everything else has done nothing recently.

R3 Romantic Ruler ; Beaten less than a length on debut with 59kgs on heavy in 3yo OMWLY grade. Down 3.5kgs into a weak all aged maiden , clearly the one to beat. That was a field of 4 , a full field of older horses is a different set up so $1.70 is not my style of punting but if it’s yours this is the best chance out of all the shorties in this preview.

Quaddie( r5 - 8 ) ; field , 2 , 4 5 , 2 3 7 . $60 for 100%

R6 Real Danger ; I am a massive fan of apprentice Luke Campbell and the 3kg claim pitchforks this mare in. I’m not a fan of backing odds on fav’s in 1000m races , let alone apprentice ridden one’s against the likes of Paul Harvey . Northam can play very leaderish at times so Mega Reward and Shock Result are to be respected. On paper Real Danger gets the dream stalking run behind them and finishes over the top but again , not willing to take the odds.

R8 CYWER ; On ability this would be an absolute moral. Has had a minor setback since a sensational run on a heavy track where the rail was hot and it swooped from last from a horror gate. Brighid finished alongside her that day and again maps for a sweet run . OH SOPHIA was off and gone with the prize before being run down on the line by a now Westpeed Platinum Saturday winner . Enough doubt to stay well clear of the $1.80 on offer , especially if the track is favouring those on speed. Good Novelty race , could even consider OH SOPHIA each way if leaders are dominating but I’m reluctant to take the fav on .

R8 Novelties ; , 2 3 7 , 2 3 7 , 2 3 7 , field . $6 trifecta $42 first 4

Please Gamble Responsibly

Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r4 The Great Hoya ; $9.50 each way for a horse with solid recent form vs a stack of debutantes who have trialed well enough seems good value. Maps to get a sweet run . 25/75 % split.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Inflation ; Chased a tearaway leader down along with No Change in a 66+ and was only run down late by a swimmer in atrocious heavy conditions. Drops in grade and distance while the claim and dry track can help it beat No Change. 50/50 Each Way split.

Please Gamble Responsibly

Sunday Prayers

Kalgoorlie r6 Long Weekend ; Looks a good thing but after scratchings is a good things price. Absolutely flying in Kal and maps a treat. Multi it with our best bet below or quaddie anchor.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Seeable ; Been winning as it likes with huge weights. Maps perfectly and drops in weight for the rise in class. Easy to argue Shoot Your Shot is a big danger. Beat us home this distance a few starts ago and now meets the fav considerably better off at weights. Just think we find the front from the better barrier and run them into the ground.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; field , 4 , 2 , 1 6 8 . $36 for 100%

Weekend Winners

Belmont r5 Olden ; Jockey got off last start and said he was never going to lose , running past Alimentaria who was last Saturday’s best bet that won as it liked. Drops a massive 6kgs for this . On Heavy it would be a Best Bet as it absolutely swims. On a drying Soft 7 , most likely 6 on the day it still looks well placed.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Advanced ; Going off it’s first up run last campaign when it demolished them on a soft 7 in a Northam c3. This stable generally produces them first up and it’s trial also indicated it is ready to deliver. $2.05 for a Saturday 66+ is rock bottom , hoping there is support for others to push it out a bit on the day.

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 2 3 5 6 7 , 8 , 4 7 8 11 , 2 3 7 9 12 13 14 . $168 for 100%

Randwick r5 Showmanship ; Been a fan of this horse since his debut in WA and have no doubt it would of won a group 1 if not for a tendon injury. Still might and the weight of money for this horse has been unbelievable. $6 into $2.70 and it’s not even race day yet. Barrier 1 and Jmac is always popular , to be honest it’s almost unders now but there is usually a tipping point where it starts going back the other way. Around $3 would be acceptable.

Please Gamble Responsibly

Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r1 Sunplay ; Should make its way to the top and control it. From there it has the fitness base to prove very hard to run down. Fly Away Home has to stretch it’s promising form out to 1500m . Bonnie Lad gets 3kg claim and blinkers to try and make up 2.6 lengths on Sunplay. Special Sort wouldn’t have to be a star to win but tough day to debut over 1500m as a 3yo.

Pinjarra r7 Prize Pursuit ; Has a task from the gate with the weight. No win bet at the odds . Flexi novelties only .

1st ; 1 4 6 , 2nd - 3rd ; 1 2 4 6 4th 1 2 4 6 7 9 . $18 trifecta $54 first 4 .

Wednesday Winners

Belmont is a Heavy 9 at time of writing ,. With plenty of more rain forecast tomorrow we will be lucky if the meeting even goes ahead. Being track side Saturday when it deteriorated from a drying 6 to a 10 in about 2 races , I noticed some of the swimmers we tipped didn’t even handle it , especially if they settled back in the field . With this in mind we will not be betting early and we will definitely be going small stakes.

Best Bet Belmont r1 Beneath the Covers ; Has run 2 seconds on Heavy to kick off campaign and beat home the favourite Mr Megsey at latest despite sitting deep the trip. Blinkers on , maps to find the front and has 4kg’s less to carry than the favourite .

Belmont r8 Cheerful Moment ; First run back from Victoria and while 1200m is way short of his best , gee whiz the heavy track Victorian form stacks up against these. Enticing the other wet tracker if 1200m proves too short for top pick.

Please Gamble Responsibly

Weekend Winners

Here’s the preview for the prestigious , time honoured “ Paul Taylor Handicap “ day . Hardest part about tipping this meeting is predicting what sort of conditions will present itself on the day. Tracks currently rated a soft 6 as it basks in glorious winter sunshine. The way Belmont drains it will be no surprise to wake up to a 5/ borderline good 4 but then… The forecast has changed from up to 20mls to 5-6 mls , the majority to fall between 8am - 12 pm. I’m hedging my bets and saying a 6 but it could be anywhere from a 6 to a Heavy 8. Drier than a 6 then my form goes out the window.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Alimentaria ; Price perspective best bet. Honest winter stayer that controls this out in front and gives a good kick. Currently paying 20c more than the 2nd fav Flower in the Wind after finishing 10 lengths in front of it only 2 weeks ago. Yes Flower didn’t handle the heavy but it’s a big turnaround in 2 weeks. Positive Impact could easily be the best horse in time but $2.90 when he’s stepping up 500m at start 4 in his first preparation is an ask I’m willing to go around . The wetter it is , the bigger advantage fitness and the speedmap becomes .

Belmont r5 Classic Rogue ; If the track makes it to the 7/8 range his chances skyrocket. Handled the conditions much better 2 weeks ago ( was a H9) then his opposition. Same track and distance today but stiffer opposition. Vital Flirt is in the same boat in regards to condtions , Big Screen looks hard to run down but may cop some pressure from Inflation . Drier / on pace conditions suit him so like all races today , big watch on conditions.

Belmont r7 Probity ; Absolutely swims so if it’s a h8 it becomes the best of the day , a s5 my enthusiasm plummets. The win on the H9 two weeks ago was remarkable. Settled a clear last , sliced through the field and won effortlessly , running away from them on the line. This is a harder race with Multinational to chase down but pretty confident it does in the right conditions.

Belmont r8 Resortman ; The win in the Bolton Sprint was top notch , especially considering the track pattern of the day. He sat deep from the wide draw and sustained a long run to win narrowly but convincingly. Very similar field in identical conditions and from a better gate , he should be awfully hard to beat providing he gets room to zoom in the straight.

Best Value Belmont r9 Kia Ora Star ; TBH if the race wasn’t named after one’s self then I wouldn’t be betting. But it is so It would be rude not to throw a dart. Did too much work first up and dropped out late . I thought it was a good effort under the circumstances . Hoping they elect to take a sit on Puli instead of getting in a speed battle , peel off heels and try and pinch it. I am a #11inthelast man and Dorado should get an identical run to last time drawn 1 , might not be as rain effected but the form has stood up since.

r9 Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 1 3 11 3rd & 4th ; Field . $3 Quinella , $60 trifecta $660 first 4.

Extremely tough race and by no means do I suggest spending much on the novelties , they should pay huge no matter what the result so a small flexi % will be suffice.

Belmont Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 6 , field , 2 8 , 2 4 . $64 for 100%

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) field , 7 , 4 5 , field $240 for 100%

Please Gamble Responsibly

Northam Numbers

Northam r3 Big Break ; Is no star but I’m convinced she’ll pinch a 1000m maiden eventually when she gets the right run. Has the speed to sit comfortably outside Smiling Girl and keep kicking down the straight. The ones likely to be chasing are first up so at $6 I’m willing to play each way .

Best Bet Northam r5 George Gently ; Came from last up the rail to run 2nd this track and distance first up. Drawn 1 it can settle closer but get a similar run In a race that lacks depth.

Best Value Northam r9 Riding Hood Fame ; On form and ability Benji’s should be winning here. The big weight over a distance it has only run two 3rds in 5 attempts got me to look for value instead. This mare finally won her maiden at the end of May and has been racing consistently ever since. The Northam mile is her favourite track and distance so back to a c1 she can run a cheeky race on a 10/90% basis. The more the track dries out , the better her chances .

Best Roughie Northam r10 Amber Mamba ; Pretty much a case of fomo here as we tipped and had something on last time. She gets a long way back and most likely needs an easier race but I can’t let her go round at $126 and $20 without having 5 each way on. Should be closer to 40’s in my opinion.

Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 2 3 4 5 6 7 11 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 , 3 , 10 . $42 for 100%

Quaddie (R7-10) ; 1 11 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 , 1 6 , 1 6 8 9 $128 for 100%

Please Gamble Responsibly

Wednesday Winners

Belmont is already playing tired with making ground proving extremely difficult in recent times. We face another Heavy track tomorrow with the rail out 21m. Not a scenario that makes you want to bet with confidence. When following anyone’s tips or your own form it’s vitally important to monitor how the track is playing early and adjust accordingly.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Bird’s The Word ; Has won on heavy , drawn to race very handy with a leading rider engaged and has the strongest form. Ticks a lot of boxes. Wise Cracker has become a bit of a tease but swims so worth including at $8.

Novelties ; 1st 6 7 2nd 4 6 7 , 3rd & 4th Field . $28 trifecta $168 first4

Best Value Belmont r5 City of Sin ; His two heavy track runs have been his best by several lengths , albeit down the Pinjarra straight 1000m. Very little exposed wet track form in this so from barrier 2 could prove hard to catch on an each way basis.

Best Roughie Belmont r8 Ensign Pulver ; Races on speed , is down in the weights and racing consistently. Ran 2nd to the champ Prize Pursuit on soft two starts back , he would start close to favourite in this. There are better winning chances no doubt but at $26 / $5.50 I’m willing to have a small play on a 20/80 % basis.

Please Gamble Responsibly

Broome Bangers

Best Bet Broome r2 Isola Bay ; Leading at this track is the place to be and he has the speed to take full advantage of the inside draw. Does have 60kgs due to the drop in class and there are other speed horses engaged so he will need to jump cleanly but if he does his best will win this.

Please Gamble Responsibly.

Weekend Winners

Track rated a Heavy 9 Friday morning , lovely drying conditions today , showers expected to arrive in the afternoon and nothing too drastic. In summary I have no idea what conditions will be like come race time. Looking for horses that can handle wet ground is a given , hopefully we don’t need to single out swimmers. I personally won’t be betting til tomorrow morning when we have a better idea and dodge the nasty deductions.

Best Bet Belmont r2 Etomorp ; Might not of beat much last start but he did it on heavy 2nd up from a long spell and he blew them away from near last. Remembering this is only a c1 transferred from Wednesday , he has way more upside then anything else in the race. Surprised he’s black figures , 60kgs the only concern.

Belmont r4 No Apology ; Going back to the clash with Brave Dream 4 weeks ago. They meet at the same distance , weights and conditions. No Apology toughed it out on speed that day to lift off the canvas and hold out Brave Dream who flashed home late to just miss in a 3 way go. Apology has since taken ground off a flying leader who keeps winning , Dream was unsuited by the drop back to 1400m but wasn’t far away. Tough race to map but Shooter has barrier 1 to get a soft run and it will take a big run to get past him.

Belmont r8 Regal Magic ; Horrible map ( expect she settle’s last) , but I can’t declare her the biggest moral beaten in horse racing history and not butter up. To get as close as she did after being hopelessly checked out of it on the corner was remarkable. Had she not had to change course last 100m she probably still gets up. Down to 53.5kgs I’m going to ignore the map and back her on a 40/60 % basis. This bet is dependent on 8 runners facing the starter ( 3 place divs). Phanta will be ridiculously hard to run down , hence the each way strategy . Good Quinella.

Belmont r9 Little Flirt ; Wet Belmont 1400m is this mares cup of tea. Much better barrier this time , the challenge will be for the young apprentice to navigate a clear passage. 40/60 split again.

Best Multi ; Etomorp (win ) , Regal Magic (place) , Little Flirt (place)

Please Gamble Responsibly