Northam Numbers

Today’s meeting is littered with short priced favourites that should win however there are enough negatives to not take the odds on offer. Instead I will be playing the quaddies . I have included some notes on the individual legs and you can decide multi’s , novelties for yourself.

Early Quaddie (r1-4); 1 , field , 10 , 2 3 . $18 for 100%

R1 Tiger Move; $1.75 for a maiden trying to break through at start 23 says a lot about the quality of the field. Someone’s got to win it and on current form he is most likely. Affluential ran last on debut , 9 lengths behind Tiger Move. That was on heavy , out to 2200m start 2 on a soft 5 could assist but it’s a stretch . Everything else has done nothing recently.

R3 Romantic Ruler ; Beaten less than a length on debut with 59kgs on heavy in 3yo OMWLY grade. Down 3.5kgs into a weak all aged maiden , clearly the one to beat. That was a field of 4 , a full field of older horses is a different set up so $1.70 is not my style of punting but if it’s yours this is the best chance out of all the shorties in this preview.

Quaddie( r5 - 8 ) ; field , 2 , 4 5 , 2 3 7 . $60 for 100%

R6 Real Danger ; I am a massive fan of apprentice Luke Campbell and the 3kg claim pitchforks this mare in. I’m not a fan of backing odds on fav’s in 1000m races , let alone apprentice ridden one’s against the likes of Paul Harvey . Northam can play very leaderish at times so Mega Reward and Shock Result are to be respected. On paper Real Danger gets the dream stalking run behind them and finishes over the top but again , not willing to take the odds.

R8 CYWER ; On ability this would be an absolute moral. Has had a minor setback since a sensational run on a heavy track where the rail was hot and it swooped from last from a horror gate. Brighid finished alongside her that day and again maps for a sweet run . OH SOPHIA was off and gone with the prize before being run down on the line by a now Westpeed Platinum Saturday winner . Enough doubt to stay well clear of the $1.80 on offer , especially if the track is favouring those on speed. Good Novelty race , could even consider OH SOPHIA each way if leaders are dominating but I’m reluctant to take the fav on .

R8 Novelties ; , 2 3 7 , 2 3 7 , 2 3 7 , field . $6 trifecta $42 first 4

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r4 The Great Hoya ; $9.50 each way for a horse with solid recent form vs a stack of debutantes who have trialed well enough seems good value. Maps to get a sweet run . 25/75 % split.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Inflation ; Chased a tearaway leader down along with No Change in a 66+ and was only run down late by a swimmer in atrocious heavy conditions. Drops in grade and distance while the claim and dry track can help it beat No Change. 50/50 Each Way split.

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Sunday Prayers

Kalgoorlie r6 Long Weekend ; Looks a good thing but after scratchings is a good things price. Absolutely flying in Kal and maps a treat. Multi it with our best bet below or quaddie anchor.

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r7 Seeable ; Been winning as it likes with huge weights. Maps perfectly and drops in weight for the rise in class. Easy to argue Shoot Your Shot is a big danger. Beat us home this distance a few starts ago and now meets the fav considerably better off at weights. Just think we find the front from the better barrier and run them into the ground.

Quaddie (r5-8) ; field , 4 , 2 , 1 6 8 . $36 for 100%

Weekend Winners

Belmont r5 Olden ; Jockey got off last start and said he was never going to lose , running past Alimentaria who was last Saturday’s best bet that won as it liked. Drops a massive 6kgs for this . On Heavy it would be a Best Bet as it absolutely swims. On a drying Soft 7 , most likely 6 on the day it still looks well placed.

Best Bet Belmont r7 Advanced ; Going off it’s first up run last campaign when it demolished them on a soft 7 in a Northam c3. This stable generally produces them first up and it’s trial also indicated it is ready to deliver. $2.05 for a Saturday 66+ is rock bottom , hoping there is support for others to push it out a bit on the day.

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) ; 1 2 3 5 6 7 , 8 , 4 7 8 11 , 2 3 7 9 12 13 14 . $168 for 100%

Randwick r5 Showmanship ; Been a fan of this horse since his debut in WA and have no doubt it would of won a group 1 if not for a tendon injury. Still might and the weight of money for this horse has been unbelievable. $6 into $2.70 and it’s not even race day yet. Barrier 1 and Jmac is always popular , to be honest it’s almost unders now but there is usually a tipping point where it starts going back the other way. Around $3 would be acceptable.

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r1 Sunplay ; Should make its way to the top and control it. From there it has the fitness base to prove very hard to run down. Fly Away Home has to stretch it’s promising form out to 1500m . Bonnie Lad gets 3kg claim and blinkers to try and make up 2.6 lengths on Sunplay. Special Sort wouldn’t have to be a star to win but tough day to debut over 1500m as a 3yo.

Pinjarra r7 Prize Pursuit ; Has a task from the gate with the weight. No win bet at the odds . Flexi novelties only .

1st ; 1 4 6 , 2nd - 3rd ; 1 2 4 6 4th 1 2 4 6 7 9 . $18 trifecta $54 first 4 .

Wednesday Winners

Belmont is a Heavy 9 at time of writing ,. With plenty of more rain forecast tomorrow we will be lucky if the meeting even goes ahead. Being track side Saturday when it deteriorated from a drying 6 to a 10 in about 2 races , I noticed some of the swimmers we tipped didn’t even handle it , especially if they settled back in the field . With this in mind we will not be betting early and we will definitely be going small stakes.

Best Bet Belmont r1 Beneath the Covers ; Has run 2 seconds on Heavy to kick off campaign and beat home the favourite Mr Megsey at latest despite sitting deep the trip. Blinkers on , maps to find the front and has 4kg’s less to carry than the favourite .

Belmont r8 Cheerful Moment ; First run back from Victoria and while 1200m is way short of his best , gee whiz the heavy track Victorian form stacks up against these. Enticing the other wet tracker if 1200m proves too short for top pick.

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Weekend Winners

Here’s the preview for the prestigious , time honoured “ Paul Taylor Handicap “ day . Hardest part about tipping this meeting is predicting what sort of conditions will present itself on the day. Tracks currently rated a soft 6 as it basks in glorious winter sunshine. The way Belmont drains it will be no surprise to wake up to a 5/ borderline good 4 but then… The forecast has changed from up to 20mls to 5-6 mls , the majority to fall between 8am - 12 pm. I’m hedging my bets and saying a 6 but it could be anywhere from a 6 to a Heavy 8. Drier than a 6 then my form goes out the window.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Alimentaria ; Price perspective best bet. Honest winter stayer that controls this out in front and gives a good kick. Currently paying 20c more than the 2nd fav Flower in the Wind after finishing 10 lengths in front of it only 2 weeks ago. Yes Flower didn’t handle the heavy but it’s a big turnaround in 2 weeks. Positive Impact could easily be the best horse in time but $2.90 when he’s stepping up 500m at start 4 in his first preparation is an ask I’m willing to go around . The wetter it is , the bigger advantage fitness and the speedmap becomes .

Belmont r5 Classic Rogue ; If the track makes it to the 7/8 range his chances skyrocket. Handled the conditions much better 2 weeks ago ( was a H9) then his opposition. Same track and distance today but stiffer opposition. Vital Flirt is in the same boat in regards to condtions , Big Screen looks hard to run down but may cop some pressure from Inflation . Drier / on pace conditions suit him so like all races today , big watch on conditions.

Belmont r7 Probity ; Absolutely swims so if it’s a h8 it becomes the best of the day , a s5 my enthusiasm plummets. The win on the H9 two weeks ago was remarkable. Settled a clear last , sliced through the field and won effortlessly , running away from them on the line. This is a harder race with Multinational to chase down but pretty confident it does in the right conditions.

Belmont r8 Resortman ; The win in the Bolton Sprint was top notch , especially considering the track pattern of the day. He sat deep from the wide draw and sustained a long run to win narrowly but convincingly. Very similar field in identical conditions and from a better gate , he should be awfully hard to beat providing he gets room to zoom in the straight.

Best Value Belmont r9 Kia Ora Star ; TBH if the race wasn’t named after one’s self then I wouldn’t be betting. But it is so It would be rude not to throw a dart. Did too much work first up and dropped out late . I thought it was a good effort under the circumstances . Hoping they elect to take a sit on Puli instead of getting in a speed battle , peel off heels and try and pinch it. I am a #11inthelast man and Dorado should get an identical run to last time drawn 1 , might not be as rain effected but the form has stood up since.

r9 Novelties 1st & 2nd ; 1 3 11 3rd & 4th ; Field . $3 Quinella , $60 trifecta $660 first 4.

Extremely tough race and by no means do I suggest spending much on the novelties , they should pay huge no matter what the result so a small flexi % will be suffice.

Belmont Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 1 6 , field , 2 8 , 2 4 . $64 for 100%

Belmont Quaddie (r6-9) field , 7 , 4 5 , field $240 for 100%

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Northam Numbers

Northam r3 Big Break ; Is no star but I’m convinced she’ll pinch a 1000m maiden eventually when she gets the right run. Has the speed to sit comfortably outside Smiling Girl and keep kicking down the straight. The ones likely to be chasing are first up so at $6 I’m willing to play each way .

Best Bet Northam r5 George Gently ; Came from last up the rail to run 2nd this track and distance first up. Drawn 1 it can settle closer but get a similar run In a race that lacks depth.

Best Value Northam r9 Riding Hood Fame ; On form and ability Benji’s should be winning here. The big weight over a distance it has only run two 3rds in 5 attempts got me to look for value instead. This mare finally won her maiden at the end of May and has been racing consistently ever since. The Northam mile is her favourite track and distance so back to a c1 she can run a cheeky race on a 10/90% basis. The more the track dries out , the better her chances .

Best Roughie Northam r10 Amber Mamba ; Pretty much a case of fomo here as we tipped and had something on last time. She gets a long way back and most likely needs an easier race but I can’t let her go round at $126 and $20 without having 5 each way on. Should be closer to 40’s in my opinion.

Early Quaddie (r3-6) ; 2 3 4 5 6 7 11 , 1 2 3 4 5 7 , 3 , 10 . $42 for 100%

Quaddie (R7-10) ; 1 11 , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 , 1 6 , 1 6 8 9 $128 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont is already playing tired with making ground proving extremely difficult in recent times. We face another Heavy track tomorrow with the rail out 21m. Not a scenario that makes you want to bet with confidence. When following anyone’s tips or your own form it’s vitally important to monitor how the track is playing early and adjust accordingly.

Best Bet Belmont r4 Bird’s The Word ; Has won on heavy , drawn to race very handy with a leading rider engaged and has the strongest form. Ticks a lot of boxes. Wise Cracker has become a bit of a tease but swims so worth including at $8.

Novelties ; 1st 6 7 2nd 4 6 7 , 3rd & 4th Field . $28 trifecta $168 first4

Best Value Belmont r5 City of Sin ; His two heavy track runs have been his best by several lengths , albeit down the Pinjarra straight 1000m. Very little exposed wet track form in this so from barrier 2 could prove hard to catch on an each way basis.

Best Roughie Belmont r8 Ensign Pulver ; Races on speed , is down in the weights and racing consistently. Ran 2nd to the champ Prize Pursuit on soft two starts back , he would start close to favourite in this. There are better winning chances no doubt but at $26 / $5.50 I’m willing to have a small play on a 20/80 % basis.

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Broome Bangers

Best Bet Broome r2 Isola Bay ; Leading at this track is the place to be and he has the speed to take full advantage of the inside draw. Does have 60kgs due to the drop in class and there are other speed horses engaged so he will need to jump cleanly but if he does his best will win this.

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Weekend Winners

Track rated a Heavy 9 Friday morning , lovely drying conditions today , showers expected to arrive in the afternoon and nothing too drastic. In summary I have no idea what conditions will be like come race time. Looking for horses that can handle wet ground is a given , hopefully we don’t need to single out swimmers. I personally won’t be betting til tomorrow morning when we have a better idea and dodge the nasty deductions.

Best Bet Belmont r2 Etomorp ; Might not of beat much last start but he did it on heavy 2nd up from a long spell and he blew them away from near last. Remembering this is only a c1 transferred from Wednesday , he has way more upside then anything else in the race. Surprised he’s black figures , 60kgs the only concern.

Belmont r4 No Apology ; Going back to the clash with Brave Dream 4 weeks ago. They meet at the same distance , weights and conditions. No Apology toughed it out on speed that day to lift off the canvas and hold out Brave Dream who flashed home late to just miss in a 3 way go. Apology has since taken ground off a flying leader who keeps winning , Dream was unsuited by the drop back to 1400m but wasn’t far away. Tough race to map but Shooter has barrier 1 to get a soft run and it will take a big run to get past him.

Belmont r8 Regal Magic ; Horrible map ( expect she settle’s last) , but I can’t declare her the biggest moral beaten in horse racing history and not butter up. To get as close as she did after being hopelessly checked out of it on the corner was remarkable. Had she not had to change course last 100m she probably still gets up. Down to 53.5kgs I’m going to ignore the map and back her on a 40/60 % basis. This bet is dependent on 8 runners facing the starter ( 3 place divs). Phanta will be ridiculously hard to run down , hence the each way strategy . Good Quinella.

Belmont r9 Little Flirt ; Wet Belmont 1400m is this mares cup of tea. Much better barrier this time , the challenge will be for the young apprentice to navigate a clear passage. 40/60 split again.

Best Multi ; Etomorp (win ) , Regal Magic (place) , Little Flirt (place)

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r2 Our Boy Dylan ; The last and only time he raced down the Pinjarra straight 1000m he won as a heavily backed favourite. He was also first up that day. Struggled to split him and First Law. His recent form is strong and he finally broke through last start , winning effortlessly . Both apprentice ridden , I’ll stick with the straight experience and back Dylan for a profit and First Law to cover the bet . EG 10 units on Dylan 5 units on Law. Might even go the quinella for the cherry on top.

Best Value Pinjarra r3 Whaitiri ; Has placed last 3 starts , all of them on soft / heavy tracks. Last one was 2200m so he will be the fittest horse in the race which gives him a sniff at odds. The 2nd to Etomorp this track , distance and conditions is good enough , especially when you consider Etomorp was a $2.05 fav at the washed out Belmont meeting today. Each Way.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r4 Prize Pursuit ; Doing the form for a track in the Heavy 8 / Soft 7 range based on Friday’s forecast. . While I’m not sure he’s a duck (pun intended) neither is he a duffer. He has run 2nd on a 8 previously. The speed map looks pretty straightforward . The omen horse Inflation will kick up and lead from barrier 1 , giving CJP the option from 2 to either find his back or stay 1 off depending on how the inside is playing. Most of these have been racing in the Westpeed races and there has been little separating them at the finish. Lucky Heart brings the alternate form line , handles wet ground and looks the value in the market. Prize should get the run of the race , Lucky Heart , Arnie’s Boy , Classic Rouge , Ninetyone Dwyer best placed to challenge , Inflation and Speedy Miss next best.

Betting Strategy ; This part is tough . To be honest while he’s hard to beat, there’s not much value in $3.40. Being an owner I will most likely just try and pocket the stakes and drink the free frothies should he salute. At $5 + I could entertain backing him for the win.

Novelties

1st 3 , 2nd , 1 5 7 11 , 3rd & 4th ; 1 2 4 5 7 11 $4 exacta , $20 trifecta $80 first 4.

Risky standing him out to win but you gotta risk it to win the biscuit!

Best Bet Belmont r8 Corn Cob ; Have a lot of time for this horse. Had 11 starts in it’s initial campaign starting with a Geraldton maiden win in December 21 and finished with a 70+ win beating smart city winner Startrade at the end of April , winning a total of 6 races. That is an incredible performance. He looks extremely well placed back to 62+ grade with the 3kg claim reducing his wait to 56.5kgs. Racing on a wet track , coming from good 3s is the query but it’s called gambling and I’m willing to take the punt on an each way basis.

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Northam Numbers

Northam r5 Image of Pro ; Trialed like a smart horse and drawn to dictate out in front which is usually a big advantage this track.

Northam r6 Star Soprano ; Speedy customer who should have no trouble finding the front and with a 3kg claim it will be hard for anything to run him down.

Best Bet Northam r7 Forever Autumn ; The form he brings from his last start 3yo event is considerably stronger than he meets here.

All 3 look extremely well placed. As they are all in the $2-$3 dollar range I suggest a system 2/3 where if at least two win you get a return , all 3 a decent result. If the first two lose then you can reload on the best bet.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Value Belmont r1 Frantic War ; Luck in running and a survival of the fittest type affair and he definitely has the race fitness covered.

Betting Strategy ; 20/80% Each Way. Opened as much as $19/ $4.60 . Straight into $13/$3.60 so I’m not the only one who thinks it can run a race as it wasn’t my money (sigh). I suggest waiting until at least scratchings tomorrow morning to avoid deductions.

Belmont r5 Revitup ; All eyes on the start of this race. She’s very quick , she handles wet ground and if she can cross The Collector she doesn’t cop any kickback.. The Collector was very impressive to the eye at his latest trial , leading all the way and putting 6 lengths on them when let off the chain in the straight. Interesting if they try and keep the fav out or take a sit. I would take the sit and get the perfect tow in . The time of the trial wasn’t as impressive as other 2yo’s on same day in this race . That persuades me to side with the race proven form but it’s imperative she finds the front on her own.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Chili Is Hot ; She is having a very consistent prep and Paul Harvey is in a rich vein of form. Considering she has beaten both All Day Session and Brave Dream home at her last two 2nds ( vs 6th and 10th respectively ) , I’m confused as to why she’s longer odds. Brave Dream was enormous last start but that was 1600m , switch back to 1400m a concern for mine. The fav must be priced on the map where it looks like getting a soft lead . Not bothered how wet it gets with Chili , just need to see horses making ground sweeping into it by race 6. Confident she is the most reliable out of the 4 horses mentioned so going 40/60 % split as the bet of the day.

Best Roughie Belmont r11 Kia Ora Star ; Boy what a great betting race. 2 of the rank outsiders are 1/1 on heavy! I can only genuinely rule 1 of the 14 out due to it’s wet track record but no way am I saying which 1 just in case ! The rising 9yo veteran up the top found a new lease of life when given a sea change last preparation and heading to the Great South. Has won 3/7 first up , 2/4 at the distance including 1/1 at Belmont and appreciates the sting out of the ground. Could make half of these Best Value bets led by Regal Magic but out of all of them he should get the best run just behind the speed and we’re getting $20 to have a throw at the dartboard . Something even smaller on Regal Magic.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r3 Fire At Will ; 3yo Dundeel gelding who won his maiden at Kal then came to town . Raced too keenly in stakes grade then ran a credible 3rd this distance range in 3yo company. Has upside and a turn of foot to be very competitive back in this grade.

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Belmont r1 Frantic War ; Luck in running and a survival of the fittest type affair and he definitely has the race fitness covered.

Betting Strategy ; 20/80% Each Way. Opened as much as $19/ $4.60 . Straight into $13/$3.60 so I’m not the only one who thinks it can run a race as it wasn’t my money (sigh). I suggest waiting until at least scratchings tomorrow morning to avoid deductions.

Belmont r1 Revitup ; All eyes on the start of this race. She’s very quick , she handles wet ground and if she can cross The Collector she doesn’t cop any kickback.. The Collector was very impressive to the eye at his latest trial , leading all the way and putting 6 lengths on them when let off the chain in the straight. Interesting if they try and keep the fav out or take a sit. I would take the sit and get the perfect tow in . The time of the trial wasn’t as impressive as other 2yo’s on same day in this race . That persuades me to side with the race proven form but it’s imperative she finds the front on her own.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Chili Is Hot ; She is having a very consistent prep and Paul Harvey is in a rich vein of form. Considering she has beaten both All Day Session and Brave Dream home at her last two 2nds ( vs 6th and 10th respectively ) , I’m confused as to why she’s longer odds. Brave Dream was enormous last start but that was 1600m , switch back to 1400m a concern for mine. The fav must be priced on the map where it looks like getting a soft lead . Not bothered how wet it gets with Chili , just need to see horses making ground sweeping into it by race 6. Confident she is the most reliable out of the 4 horses mentioned so going 40/60 % split as the bet of the day.

Best Roughie Belmont r9 Kia Ora Star ; Boy what a great betting race. 2 of the rank outsiders are 1/1 on heavy! I can only genuinely rule 1 of the 14 out due to it’s wet track record but no way am I saying which 1 just in case ! The rising 9yo veteran up the top found a new lease of life when given a sea change last preparation and heading to the Great South. Has won 3/7 first up , 2/4 at the distance including 1/1 at Belmont and appreciates the sting out of the ground. Could make half of these Best Value bets led by Regal Magic but out of all of them he should get the best run just behind the speed and we’re getting $20 to have a throw at the dartboard . Something even smaller on Regal Magic.

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r6 He’sgotwings ; Has finished 2nd twice in three career starts , the latest first up without a trial. Should get every conceivable from the barrier in a weak race. As long as the track isn’t a deteriorating mess by race time time I’m going to have a good bet here. Perhaps the 2yo Piccadilly Rose can improve enough with experience to run a race if looking for some insurance.

Best Roughie Pinjarra r8 Amber Mamba ; For whatever reason this mare can pull out one massive run in a campaign and it’s usually 2nd up. We found her last prep and she got the chocolates at over $20. Ignoring her first up run as it looked more like a barrier trial to my eye. She’s obviously no good thing but worth a spec on a 20/80% basis.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r6-9) ; 3 , 1 5 , 1 2 6 8 , 2 6 13 . $24 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r2 Shake Baby Shake (Place) ; 5 starts for 1 win and 4 2nds would be frustrating as an owner but also comforting knowing that she tries every time and only has to improve a fraction to turn it around. She’s even run 2nd in her two trials leading in. Most of these are get back sprinters so if she can land in front and get away with a bit then she should give cheek with the light weight . 10 / 90 % split and only if it remains a field of 8 ie 3 place dividends. Also a conditions watch here , gets any wetter then probably leave it alone.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Rock of Kaha ; Handles all conditions and is racing in career best form. Was never going to lose last start , traveling sweetly throughout. The favourite Mahaleo looks hard to beat but I’m not a fan of backing horses with over 60kgs . We get in well after the 2kg claim. At $12/ $3.20 I’m suggesting 50/50 % each way to make a profit out of place but still going for glory.

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Weekend Winners

Best Multi Leg Belmont r4 Phanta ; Won a weak race on resumption but won it by over 6 lengths in good time with 61kgs. Was super keen when the price snuck past $2 but it’s back into odds on. Should find the front and dominate all the same.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Sluice Box ; Meets Reliable Star 2kgs better off for beating it by two lengths due to that horse winning 2 races since. Very hard to bet against her under those circumstances.

Belmont r8 Warm N Fuzzy ; Is very quick and has added strength to it’s armory this campaign. Finds the front and takes running down. $7 into $5 already but still a good each way bet.

Multi is Win Win Place .