Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r7 Prize Pursuit ; From the barrier I’m hopeful we are the first to find the fence and from there it’s up to one of the best in the business in CJP to hold the front or take a sit on the likes of Calag and Sneaky Fox. We thought he was a huge chance first up in a Saturday 58+ and we backed him accordingly. While he missed by a head he showed he is back to his best . While he is a c1 in a c3 this is still a drop in class and I can’t see how he doesn’t go extremely close. With a stack of rain predicted Thursday and no idea of how much arrives in the Avon Valley by 4pm , it’s comforting to know he handles all conditions. Beanie looks a threat from a soft stalking draw. Jarman is very enigmatic but can be dangerous . Find Your Man will be hoping out wide is the place to be , then all of a sudden he is right in it.

Box Trifecta 1 2 3 4 $24 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r3 Frantic War (Place) ; 2yo 1000m races are run one way ; flat out . There will be a host of runners charging out of the gates and looking for a spot. From barrier 6 I envision we will go forward at the start and try and slot in immediately behind the Frantic tempo . We have both race experience and fitness on our side and if it turns into a War it most likely works in our favour. After a flashing light run first up behind Mia Gusto , we went to Northam to take on the older horses where he didn’t handle the firm track and pulled up with a minor issue . To finish a clear 3rd considering the circumstances was a good effort. Mia Gusto actually beat us in a trial before winning on debut and looks smart. The horse that ran 2nd then won it’s next start. As the only winner in the race it looks extremely well placed with only 53kgs and the low draw. Exporose should be there abouts with a run under her belt.

Betting Strategy ; $10 / $2.40 Best available at time of writing (Bet 365) . Mia Gusto looks awfully hard to beat but see no reason why we can’t run a place behind her. We will go 10 / 90 % split in case she runs into traffic , doesn’t run up to expectations or we jump out of the ground in the softer conditions.

Novelties 1st ; 3 8 , 2nd 3 8 9 , 3rd 2.3.5.8.9 11 , 4th field $4 Exacta $16 Trifecta $144 First four

Best Value Belmont r5 Rogues Point ; 37 start c1 horse but there was money around to suggest he could run a cheeky race this track and distance last start and that he did , running 2nd to Frigid . That horse then went straight to a Saturday race and started at $2.20 , winning comfortably as a Lucky Duck Best Bet. No horses of that quality here so $8.50 each way looks a solid bet.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r5 So Likeable ; Is loving Kalgoorlie racing . The significant rise in class is offset by a massive 6.5kg drop in weight after having to lump 62 kgs last start. Getting over from barrier 8 will be crucial but with Beaucount in the race there is usually a gap to slot into.

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Weekend Winners

Belmont r3 Bold Success ; Part responsible for a pretty brutal speed and left in front a long way out from home last start. Was only run down by today’s favourite in Reliable Star. If Laqdar can get it a touch easier on speed early then I think he can turn the tables . Back him on a 40 / 60 % split to cover your stake.

Best Value Belmont r4 Astro Warrior ; Heavily backed first up and supporters including myself never had any cause for concern. Yes this is harder but it’s even and from barrier 1 he should get another dream run. Ignoring all his track , distance and 2nd up stats as he’s in a new stable and hadn’t placed first up previously. $10/$3 looks good each way value.

Best Bet Belmont r6 Frigid ; This market suggested she would beat a moderate cl1 first up and she did it effortlessly. Straight into a 1MW 60+ , the current $2.25 is questionable but I’m pretty sure she had plenty of improvement in her that day . Light weight , extra 100m , hot stable , think she will handle the test.

Best Roughie Belmont r7 Vital Flirt ; She’s a very hard mare to catch but she can pull out a run from nowhere. She has never fired a shot first and 2nd up so her 2nd up effort was acceptable in readiness for 1600m 3rd up. 5 time winner over the mile , if the predicted rain arrives in time , the more the better for her. Currently paying $26 / $6 20/80 % split.

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Pinjarra Punts

Best Bet Pinjarra r5 Too Much Talk ; Backed for a stack last start , the wheels looked to be spinning in the heavy conditions. Back on dry with blinkers first time , punters will be looking to get their money back in a pretty weak race.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r2 Capital Flight ; Has won last two starts over today’s 1000m at Northam in fine fashion . The form lines are strong and if he can transfer that form to Belmont he will take a power of beating. Fatale Femme can be dangerous dropping in class, good quinella .Confident we have On The Full covered due to the Senorita Dorethea form reference.

Belmont r3 Sentimental Belle ; Bred to be good and her trials indicate she has a stack of ability. Vampi At Play has brilliant form for this , you could back both for profit and I’d be surprised if anything else won.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r2 Manitoba ; 2yo’s in All Aged Maidens are hard to assess. They nearly always have the best potential , they still find it hard to win as we found out first hand with our own 2yo on Thursday. Considering Manitoba ran 2nd this track and distance at start two a fortnight ago despite doing things wrong , it’s hard to go against him. In Isolation a two lengths 2nd by Chang Man to So Likeable wins this race , that was a plodding effort over 1600m , not sure about back to 1400m for him. Feuding’s draw hurts his chances considerably.

Early Quaddie (r1-4) ; 3 4 5 6 , 10 , 1 2 6 , 1 8 $24 for 100%

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Belmont r6 Media Baron ; One more go for the veteran grey over his pet distance on his preferred good ground. Paul Harvey suits this horse perfectly as the older horses can bludge against the new age “feel” jockeys whereas he is an old school strong enforcer type jockey who can get everything out of them. Last of the Line was simply enormous last start but 2nd up off long break with 62kgs is a huge ask. Startrade is flying but untested at the mile and maps awkwardly hence looking for value on a 25/75 % basis.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Nowhiteflag ; Like most 1000m races this will be on like Donkey Kong from start to finish . Even though he will be apart of the mad speed , it actually suits him ie getting into a dog fight and fighting them off. That man Harvey again , perfect jockey to get every inch out of them when fatigue sets in. Hopefully a big day for Harvey and the greys!

Belmont r9 My Baby Blue Jeans ; Has blistering pace but has options from the barrier if a couple of the other speedsters over do it from out wide. The trial was good and 3rd and 4th won first up at the midweeks. 2nd was our very own Prize Pursuit and he ran 2nd by a head last Saturday . Doh! Suggest 40/60 % split .

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam R4 Frantic War ; Ridden for speed in his initial campaign , we were forced to go back from the wide gate first up and it was great to see him attack the line with gusto from last on the corner. From the barrier and with most of the natural speed drawn outside this time , I can see him lobbing in a great spot just behind the leaders. 1000m are just about a given to be run hard and I can see a mad charge for positions so the booking of leading jockey Chris Parnham is a big plus. Weighing up 2yo form against all aged is extremely difficult. You can argue that he has more upside , especially off his last run and a repeat should see him being very competitive.

Betting Strategy ; 100% wins . Has opened $2.90 favourite (Tabtouch) Definitely would be waiting for a better price than that on the day.

Best Value Northam r6 Devil Girl ; It’s 6 lifetime starts have been ordinary but her trial was sharp so perhaps she has matured . A little ducky told me the stable are confident so at $8.50 / $2.50 I’m prepared to play each way.

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Wednesday Winners

Belmont r1 El Patron ; Satisfactory return when working in the breeze and fighting on into 2nd behind a filly on debut who had trialed well and got a dream run throughout. Just A Rumour has trialed well behind proven 2yo’s and could find the favourites back.

R1 Novelties ; 2 5 , 1 2 3 5 , 1 2 3 5 , field . $6 exacta , $12 trifecta $84 first 4

Best Bet Belmont r8 Vane Tempest ; Has genuine Saturday ability in this distance range , can just be a risky barriers horse. At $5.50 /$2.10 I’m willing to take the chance that she jumps clean and proves too classy on a 50/50% each way basis .

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Weekend Winners

Best Value Belmont r2 Prize Pursuit ; A hot speed will be set by Native Chimes tearing across from the outside gate. Just how much work he has to do to cross Inflation (1) , Prize Pursuit (8) and Safety Bay(10) remains to be seen. While barrier 9 is a bit awkward , hopefully leading hoop CJP can come across and slot in close to the speed. The early favourite Rulelee likely settles last and will need to sustain a long sprint but the early speed should assist it and Gold Merits . Mr Mt Walker is drawn to get the loveliest of smother runs . Each Way .

Belmont r6 Timely Outburst ; It’s natural speed should see it lead comfortably from barrier 1 whereas the favourite Burnya to Survive likes to get back and run on. While he is more than capable , think the mare will have a decent break and can hold on.

Best Bet Belmont r8 Prince Turbo ; This horse is absolutely airborne and I’m gobsmacked at the price available. He is the proven stayer in the race and is rock hard fit. God Has Chosen is the worthy favourite with his trainer Lindsay Smith warning punters he was looking for this trip before his luckless defeat to today’s rival Kaptain Kaos. Both still have to prove it though so I’m more than happy to take the odds on offer for the Prince on a 25 / 75 % basis.

R8 Novelties ; 7 9 , 6 7 9 , 3 6 7 8 9 , 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 11 . $4 exacta $12 trifecta $72 first 4.

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Pinjarra Punts (Updated)

* Track a soft 7 with more rain to come . Too Much Talk untried on wet and Seberate has a poor wet track record. Small Stakes only under these circumstances , at current prices would even consider no bet.

Best Bet Pinjarra r4 Too Much Talk; Looked the winner first up before a talented one on debut fought back and held it off. The extra 100m looks ideal , especially from barrier 1 where it should do no work until the home straight. With a bit of race fitness on his side and nothing with much form behind them among the opposition I expect him to go very close. Madam Wu has ran well on occasions and looks some sort of threat.

Pinjarra r 10 Seberate ; Dropping from 72+ and 66+ Saturday racing where it was competitive to a Pinjarra c5. Add barrier 1 and CJP and you can certainly justify the favourite tag.

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r4 Multinational ; The trial and first up 2nd when leading both indicate he has come back well. Being a 3yo suggests he should have more upside than his well tried opponents. Not many on pace types in the race so he should find a position near the top. Loves wet ground.

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Sunday Prayers

Best Bet Kalgoorlie r4 So Likeable ; The scratching of the topweight has made his task of going back to back considerably easier. This is a fair bit tougher than his maiden win but they have also had plenty of chances. Finding the front and controlling it is vitally important. Barrier 2 suggests he should find it , up to the others to see how soft he gets it. Jolly Lace is my saver bet however any could win if not the favourite.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r6 Watch Me Dance ; Handles all conditions which is important as the expected doomsday weather hasn’t arrived yet so who knows what we’re dealing with tomorrow. Mapped awkwardly last start and ran as well as could be expected. Solid placings in hot form races prior. Maps perfectly this time. Each way while the place is still $2. Startrade has the ability but all 26 starts have been on good tracks so your guess is as good as mine.

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r3 What A Prince ; Pulled it’s head off out in front over 1600m last start over 1600m. Two starts ago was only run down by Ciscojoe this track and distance . Winkers off back to 1400m earns it one last chance. Surely today’s the day.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) ; 2 3 4 5 6 , 2 , 1 2 4 5 , 8. $20 for 100%

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Wednesday Winners

Best Bet Belmont r5 Awesome Rival ; Put it altogether last start , running past a short priced favourite who then won easily at it’s next start. The best part of her race was the last 100m so she should relish the step up in trip. 100% Wins

Best Value Belmont r5 Riding Hood Fame ; Also going to back this mare in the same race on a 10/90% basis . She took 48 starts to break her maiden but she has been competitive in plenty of her runs including her last start 3rd , finishing along side Kentucky Blue who is $3.90 vs $20.

Belmont r9 Outspoken Lad ; Raced competitively enough in a Derby campaign and first up at Listed level to clearly be the one to beat here. 100% wins . Also going to back Canny Jack on a 20/80% basis as he is simply a wet tracker who didn’t get conditions to suit last start.

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Weekend Winners

Best Bet Belmont r4 Panzdown ; First up , 1000m and wet ground are all big ticks for this sprinter. Will be last and wide but in a 7 horse field with the long Belmont straight , that’s actually suits his pattern. Opened 2nd favourite behind it’s stablemate Angelic Miss so good to see the early move as they have now switched .

Best Roughy Belmont r7 Minnie Winnie ; Last preparation it won the Mungrup sprint then was beaten under 1.75 lengths by Clairvoyance . A fit and firing Clairvoyance would be long odds on to be winning this. Was pretty plain first up but that’s not unusual for her and her 2nd up stats are better. Drawn 1 it’s anybodies guess if the rail is ok by r7 . If it is she will be 3 or 4 back and fingers crossed can sneak up into the placings at $71/$11.

Belmont r9 Testing Love ; $6 the field in the get out stakes . 3/4 at 1400m and her form around Above The Peg , Sniparoochy and Warm N Fuzzy reads very well for this lottery. Each way all day.

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Pinjarra Punts

Blackbook Pinjarra r5 Bopping Blue ; Lightning quick 3yo over the 1000m who has won in 3yo Saturday grade. Went in the blackbook after it sizzled around Lark Hill trials last week in the fastest heat of the morning. Our very own Prize Pursuit ran 2nd , some 4 lengths away and he is flying at track work . Is $1.85 worth the risk down the straight 1000m first time , apprentice ridden on a soft 6, possibly deteriorating further track? It’s why I haven’t labelled it a best bet. I suggest we wait to see the conditions closer to jump and if it gets back out towards even money on a soft (not heavy) I’ll be having a crack , otherwise I’ll just play the quaddie.

Pinjarra Quaddie (r4-7) Skinny Version ; 12 14 , 2 , 8 , 1 2 3 4 9 10 ($12 for 100%)

Wide Version ; 12 14 , 2 , 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 , 1 2 3 4 9 10 . $96 for 100% )

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Northam Numbers

Best Bet Northam r4 Too Much Talk ; Found it impossible to split the two favourites here with On The Full and our tip both trialing very impressively leading in. On The Full went a fraction quicker but it led on a good track and Too Much Talk ran up behind them before hooking off heels on a slow track. Sided with the better odds ($3.30 / $2.15 ) , hoping we stalk the favourite on the fence and run him down in the straight. Will probably take the quinella aswell.

Early Quaddie (r2-5) : 7 , 1 2 , 4 7 , 1 2 3 7 10 . $20 for 100%

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