Best Bet Ascot r2 The Lady Is A Vamp ; Ascot 1000m might not be her preferred track & distance but she’s a mare in form against an even bunch of midweek/country type horses with Pike booked to ride from a good gate.
Best Value Ascot 9 First Missile ; Is capable of a big run on his day like last start at the midweeks. This is not overly strong and he should park midfield , hopefully with cover and hit the line at juicy each way odds.
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Pinjarra r6 Tawkin Jibberish ; Caught working outside the lead on a hot tempo first attempt at 1200m and was only run down by 1 . On paper he should just about lead this uncontested and be hard to run down.
Best Bet Pinjarra r8 Bonjoy ; Talented mare who has won 4/10 and was a good run over 1200m first up when taken back from wide gate and ridden for luck. Pike takes the ride and if she’s ready for 1500m 2nd up she goes very close.
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After a horror week of tips we head to our home track , with our own runners , on a big day for LUCKY DUCKS & THELANETRAIN , determined to turn it around.
Best Bet Ascot r2 Nero King ; Can really let rip on his day , like last start when he put them away in a couple of strides. With this in mind barrier 1 and Ascot not ideal but we will leave the logistics up to the jockey. Wether he drags back to last and tries to loop them or cuts the corner and tries to burst through a gap , he should be close enough in the small field.
Best Value Ascot r5 Cerridwyn ; Sat wide the entire first up but still proved way too strong. . This is tougher but with natural improvement and a better run she can be right in the finish. The two early scratchings have seen her price come in from double figures and unfortunately makes the race pay 1 & 2 only. Still think she is the biggest threat to the favourite Costazita . While not disgraced by any means I was disappointed with his first up run after getting every chance . Big chance but the price is unappealing so each way Cerridwyn for me.
Ascot r8 Starry Heights ; The only way I can see him not making it 6 in a row is if he doesn’t handle the drop back from 1600m to 1400m. Map , weight , speed in race all look perfect. Cold Shizzle looks the value , insurance , quinella horse .
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Mt Barker r1 Blazen Star ; Recent Bunbury form should hold up very well for a Mount Barker maiden.
Mt Barker r4 Oxbridge ; This horse has turned in to the Great Southern’s version of Placid Ark , with it’s devastating front running victories. At odds on from barrier 7 over an extra 1200m I still think he wins again but it becomes a question of risk vs reward . I personally will back the other two tips in singles and have 1 multi with him included.
Best Bet Mt Barker r7 Vonsnip ; Drawn to get the run of the race for a dynamic Great Southern duo in Tash & Sam Faithful .
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Belmont r2 Tawkin Jibberish ; Won on debut from barrier 1 down the Pinjarra straight 1000m , that is not easy to do. Now draws wide at Belmont round a bend , another tricky assignment . The horse he beat first up has ability and started $1.40 that day. The Fernie / CJP combo is red hot and set to be a real force for years to come .
Best Bet Belmont r5 Fellafromdownunder ; We are basically punting on him running out the staying trip first go as this is a very moderate race for the metro area and the first 2 home from his last start 3rd have ran well since.
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Ascot r6 Rusty Dreams (Top 2) ; Was given one of the rides of 2023 last time to defeat the very smart Super Smink . She’s not here this time but nor is Jockey Damian Lane . 1800m might be her limit but her class will take her a very long way to winning. For those who have a tabtouch account the $2.50 to run top 2 looks a great way to start off the year .
Best Value Perth r8 Be Optimistic ; I’ve had the favourite Casino Seventeen marked as a Perth Cup horse all preparation. I understand his popular with Pike booked and the massive weight swings against nearly all rivals but I can’t get him that short. Be Optimistic meets him 5kgs worse off for beating him two starts ago but he’s also on the minimum and is $8.50 each way. I’m optimistic both will be in the finish so I’ll take the better odds.
Best Bet Ascot r9 Hanchi ; 3yo going places with brilliant form lines and the draw to dominate this race.
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Best Bet Bunbury r2 Brontes Dream ; Beat the favourite Torpedoman home by a length last start , drawn to stalk it in the run and is paying $3.20 vs $1.95 .
Bunbury r7 Khutos ; So far in his career he has trialed like a good horse but struggled to reproduce it under race pressure. Unless one of the unraced can do the opposite and improve from their trials ,this is as weak as it gets and he gets his chance to win his maiden. $1.95 is hard to take but I can see why bookies don’t want to take a risk in this moderate line up .
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Best Value Geraldton r5 Ask An Angel ; I’m convinced this mare is up to this level when right , seems to have soundness issues holding her back. Off the back of a nice trial for a new trainer I’m going to spec that she’s feeling good and can run a cheeky race at odds. Only $15 on tabtouch , I have found $21 boosted to $26 (Betr) to have an eachway nibble.
Best Bet Pinjarra r7 Vast Art ; Very progressive 4yo who can show an explosive turn of foot when conditions suit. 4 of the 10 in this are natural leaders so the pace should be solid enough to swoop from the back .
Albany r7 Frantic War (Place) ; First run down here he beat Looks , Vonsnip and Starauthoress home comfortably behind Oxbridge who is racing like a country Black Caviar at the moment. They are all currently shorter in the market. 1240m might be stretching him to his limit but from barrier 2 with 56.5 kgs he should get every opportunity to run it out. Only 1 win from 18 , one of those horses stuck in c1 grade with big weights under WA’s terrible handicapping system , will win one soon but the place is the better punting option.
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Best Bet Ascot r5 Valency ; Has been flying all prep and drops from listed mares level behind the likes of Baby Paris & Rusty Dreams to a 72+ . Up a couple of kgs and against the boys but it’s still lengths easier and she maps to get the run of the race just behind the speed.
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Ascot r1 Silver Eye & Kings Honour ; We are getting $15 about Silver Eye and he turns up here with a win and 2nd at his only 2 starts , both over the 1000m. There should be a crazy speed set here and he can park midfield and hit the line as the best value bet on a 20/80 % basis. Was originally against Kings Honour after his only trial , a 5 1/2 length romp in quick time. To the eye he went too quick and under race conditions he might paddle the last 50 -100m. However with strong easterlies forecast , on pace bias is a real possibility so I will also back him to win. If he settles better he could bolt in , if he doesn’t he might puncture badly.
Best Bet Ascot r3 Snippenova ; With the scratching of Bayezid , she has the barrier advantage over the other speed influences and from the front she is clearly hardest to beat.
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Best Value Geraldton r6 Sun Chacen ; Good run first up and 2/4 career wins have been 2nd up . Will take a good ride from the awkward gate but at dbl figures I’m willing to go each way on a 80% place basis.
Best Bet Geraldton r7 Amarlie Miss ; Won here on debut over 1200m , then ran a fast finishing 2nd over 1400m in metro 3yo company. Wasn’t suited by the step back to 1200m last start. 1600m against the older horses not easy for a 3yo filly in her first prep but she gets in super light with the claim and Durrant has a great strike rate up here.
Ascot r1 Blue Lagoon & Crunchy Nut ; Blue Lagoon comes through the right races and should be finishing full of running. Crunchy Nut controls from the front so if the sea breeze isn’t too strong early could pinch it at odds.
SRM ; Blue Lagoon top 2 , Crunchy Nut top 4 .
Ascot r7 Costazita ; 2 previous first up runs have resulted in wins and his latest trial was strong. Lightly raced 4yo ready to charge through the grades if it stays sound.
Best Each Way Ascot r8 Vast Art ; Progressive 4yo with a great strike rate. Has a big finish on him and will need every bit of it from the barrier and hopefully some assistance from a strong sea breeze. As long as they are making ground I’m confident he at least runs top 3 to cover.
Ascot r9 Ripcord & Resortman ; Ripcord is a very exciting 3yo with the right form and 54kgs to finish over the top of them . Resortman has been set specifically for this race and should of finished much closer in the Winterbottom where Ripcord finished 3rd . Both are drawn to sit midfield , hopefully with cover and make there runs together . Ripcord 50/50 and Resortman 10/90 each way.
SRM Ripcord top 2 , resortman top 4.
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Best Bet Albany r3 Hot Chatter ; Ran 2nd to the very exciting and now Saturday winner stablemate Final Siren , then beat a very similar field same track & distance. The stable is on fire and there’s no reason she can’t get across and fight out the finish again.
Best Value Albany r7 Penny’s Afield ; Early in her career I thought this mare would have progressed to a higher level than she has. She won a trial leading in to her first up run and I’m willing to ignore the 8/11 on a day where making ground from the back was impossible. Jury’s out whether she’s going any good but at $7 and first run in the region I’m going to find out each way. Lane/Yuill combo always command respect when they travel to these meetings.
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Pinjarra r2 Magic Belle ; 3 starts for 3 2nds , all of them strong enough form references to think she can go 1 better today. She has enough speed to find the outside fence or sit outside the leader if something on her outside holds up and that is a massive advantage down the straight.
Best Bet Pinjarra r3 Lost Gravity ; Stays at the straight 1000m , dropping from a strong class 3 to a c1 . With a cleaner jump can settle much closer to the desired lead / outside fence and this race looks considerably weaker than the 0.75 lengths defeat last time.
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All Aboard #THELANETRAIN MULTI
Don’t like today’s Bunbury meeting from a punting perspective so have zeroed in on Damien’s big ride on Champions Day in Hong Kong with a short priced banker from Michael thrown in.
Bunbury r2 Justabittapress ; Went around odds on at only start off the back of a seriously good trial and it was a horror show for those that were on , trying to buck the jockey off soon after the start , dropping out to last and then having the audacity to make a bit of a run at them late before peaking on the run. Has had three trials in preparation for his return and clearly has too much natural ability for this field if he behaves himself. Hard to get too involved at $1.50 with ear muffs and tongue tie going on but fingers crossed we arrive at the first station safely!
Sha Tin R4 Zeffirro ; We know he has very strong Japanese connections and he gets on one here who is flying in this Distance range . The two favs down the bottom will be very hard to beat but this is a tough day and being a seasoned 4yo might give him the edge over the two 3yo’s.
My strategy is 80% Win / Place at approx $2.70 and 20% Win /Win at $8.25 .
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Best Bet Ascot r2 Final Siren ; 2/2 at his home track Albany , this gelding comes to the big smoke with a big boom on him thanks to the data that came out of those 2 effortless victories. With an Easterly forecast , on pace conditions are expected and he maps to either lead or towball Krysanova .
Ascot r7 Hanchi ; 2 starts ago this track & distance he was unlucky not to fully test Oscar’s Fortune . Next start he had absolutely no luck from a wide gate behind Ripcord & Oscar. Considering they filled the placings in the Winterbottom . If your taking him on (At $2.90 the bookies somewhat are) your thinking he gets bad luck again from barrier 1 . They will go like scalded cats in this and if Chris Parnham can keep up early and hold the rail he should be bursting through to victory.
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Best Value Pinjarra r8 Keytrade ; He hasn’t won for a long time but a close 2nd to Malkar Pindarri is very strong form for a $12 chance. The favourite looks hard to beat but is a stayer 2nd up hence I’m not willing to take a short price. Keytrade each way all day.
Best Bet Pinjarra r9 Bayezid ; Very fast horse who should find the outside fence and take serious catching . Hard to bet against your own horse , Frantic War has important straight track experience , is drawn to track the favourite and if he stops can be in it , if he doesn’t he can definitely be in the mix to place.
Novelties ; 4/6.7.8.9/1.6.7.8.9.10/1.2.6.7.8.9.10.11.18 $4 exacta , $20 Trifecta $140 first 4.
Pinjarra r10 Good Measure ,; Yes Bunbury has been a leaders paradise but who says Pinjarra wont be the same ? It usually is a big advantage. Sentimental Belle is a good chance but always starts too short , Esprit Garcon is very talented but has an awkward map to contend with. They are the three chances so I’ll go with the better price . Hopefully a #LANETRAIN double to round out the meeting.
Quaddie (r7-10) ; field , 2 3 , 4 (9) , 1 4 10 $78 for 100% ( Ill be including Frantic War just in case )
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Best Each Way Ascot r6 Bellgrano Belle ; Solid speed engaged with Trespassing , Albert and Ima Single Gal all having recent success by leading . Contrary to recent meetings they are tipping leading to be difficult into strong winds. Drawn 1 with Pike , she might not be swooping down the outside but she can spend no petrol and burst through as the leaders are stopping. If leading is not a disadvantage then Albert becomes best roughie. Loves racing on speed and the Patchwork form reference is good for a $51 pop. Were talking very small spec on him .
Best Bet Ascot r8 Rusty Dreams ; Massive flashing light run first up over 1200m when storming home from way back . Rolled the dice from the wide gate last start , again over 1200m and faltered when crossing the dodgy part of the track that saw the last race abandoned. Ready to peak over a more suitable 1400m and maps to get a much better run .
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